This is the second game of a four-game series in Cleveland between the Guardians and visiting Baltimore Orioles.
Brandon Young is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore while Joey Cantillo should get the nod for Cleveland.
Orioles at Guardians prediction, preview
Brandon Young has pitched 26.1 innings in MLB, all this season, and they have not been good innings. The average exit velocity is 91.1 mph, the barrel rate is 11.8% and the hard hit rate is 49.4%. The ERA is 7.52, but he’s been unlucky with a .372 BABIP and 67.2% strand rate, so the FIP is lower at 5.9. Still, that’s a high number. Now, the sample size is small and the swinging strike rate isn’t bad at 9.8%, while the chase rate is 29.8%. Most young pitchers struggle in their first taste of the majors.
Lefties have crushed him. The K-BB% is only 5.1% while five of the seven home runs have come off their bats. All seven home runs have been served up at home.
In six starts, Young has pitched at least five innings only once. The other five ended after four innings. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in every start but one. In his most recent outing, the Miami Marlins tagged him for seven earned runs in 4.1 innings. This will be the first time facing Cleveland this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Guardians have struck out at the 14th-highest rate while having the 15th-best ISO. The wOBA is 27th-best in MLB.
Joey Cantillo pitched his first MLB innings last season. And they were fairly successful innings. Over 38.2 innings, Cantillo posted a 4.07 FIP with a 27% strikeout rate. Through 41 innings this season, the ERA of 4.17 is supported by the 4.14 FIP. The strikeout rate is a robust 29.8%, while the swinging strike rate is 12.1%. Not all is sunshine and unicorns, though. The chase rate is only 22.8% and he’s been getting hit hard. The hard hit rate is 47.7% and the walk rate is an elevated 11%.
The K-BB% is much better against lefties, but the FIPs are similar. The advanced stats show that Cantillo has been better at home, but he’s allowed more home runs and has had some bad luck with a .400 BABIP.
Cantillo was in the bullpen for much of the season. He’s only made three starts, all of those happening in the three most recent outings. He pitched 3.1 innings in the first start, then 4.0 innings, and 5.1 innings in the most recent one. He’s allowed zero, three and four earned runs. He faced Baltimore as a reliever way back in mid-April. This will be his first start against Baltimore this season.
The Orioles have struck out at the fifth-highest rate against right-handed pitching, while being sixth in ISO. The wOBA is 16th-best.
As for bullpens, Baltimore has the 24th-lowest FIP, while Cleveland has the sixth-lowest.
Orioles at Guardians Best Bet
I have no faith in either starting pitcher, but I do believe in the Cleveland bullpen. Cleveland is far from a juggernaught on offense, but I think the matchups are ideal to plate more than a few.
