In general, this probably isn’t the game you want to be looking at for home run potential on Monday’s slate. Putting aside the fact that the Pirates have hit the fewest number of long balls in MLB (66) or that Paul Skenes will be taking the mound this evening, PNC Park has been the worst place in baseball to hit a homer since 2023, according to Statcast’s Park Factors.
But, if that didn’t scare you away, I’ll break down my top home run prop pick for each team on DraftKings Sportsbook in tonight’s 6:40 p.m. ET matchup. It’s not for the faint of heart!
Tigers vs. Pirates Home Run Prop Bet Picks
Oneil Cruz 1+ Home Run (+380)
Jack Flaherty started the season with a few decent outings, but it’s been all downhill from there. In fact, dating all the way back to April 15, the right-hander is in possession of a 5.25 ERA across an 84.0 inning sample. Walks have been an issue during this underwhelming stretch, yet the real red flag has been Flaherty’s inability to keep the ball in the park. Left-handed bats have specifically given Flaherty fits, as the veteran has surrendered 2.03 home runs per nine within the split in this 16-game span. We all watched the Home Run Derby last week. We know how much raw power Oneil Cruz has in the tank. Entering tonight’s matchup, Cruz sports a 100th percentile average exit velocity (96.2) and he pairs that with 99th percentile marks in hard hit rate (57.7%) and barrel rate (21.4%). As mentioned above, Pittsburgh doesn’t hit a lot of home runs. However, when it does, it’s usually Cruz.
Spencer Torkelson 1+ Home Run (+550)
For as daunting as the presence of Paul Skenes is, the former first-overall pick has been limited to just five innings in each of his past three starts. The Pirates also came out at the All-Star break and suggested these shorter outings weren’t an aberration — they’re going to keep happening with the team so far out of the playoff race. That likely means the Tigers will get to face Pittsburgh’s bullpen for at least four innings on Monday, a bullpen that just surrendered 14 earned runs in 14.0 innings against the lowly White Sox. Speaking of former first-overall picks, Torkelson is still swinging the bat well in 2025, possessing an 88th percentile barrel rate (14.7%). I like his odds to go deep if he’s getting two cracks at a group of tired Pirates relievers.
