The race to the AL West title is shaping up to be a pretty exciting one down the stretch: the Houston Astros are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and have the second-worst record of any division leader, and with three other teams within eight games of them, their perch atop the division certainly isn’t secure.
This week, the Texas Rangers (currently seven and a half games behind the Astros) will attempt to start their climb with a home series against the Athletics, the only team in the division without a semi-realistic shot of winning it. For the series opener at 8:05 p.m. ET, the Rangers will start Jack Leiter, while the Athletics will counter with Jacob Lopez.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Athletics at Texas Rangers prediction, preview
Texas was far more impressive in its first series following the All-Star break, picking up a pair of wins over the Detroit Tigers before dropping a 2-1 decision yesterday in a game started by Tarik Skubal. Their offense has continued to struggle — they scored just seven runs across the three games — but wins are wins. They got one more of those than the Athletics did, as the Athletics dropped their three-game set to the Cleveland Guardians, who are red-hot but still trail Detroit by 11 games in the AL Central. The Athletics’ offense was fine, as they scored 16 runs, but their pitching continued to be a major issue.
Thankfully, the visitors will send one of their better starters to the mound in Lopez, who’s pitched to a 4.20 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 14 appearances (10 starts) this season, and though his ERA is technically 5.01 on the road, that’s heavily skewed by one awful game against the Toronto Blue Jays. In his last three road starts, Lopez has given up four runs (three earned) in 16.1 innings, including a pair of shutouts. He’s been exceptional at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 90th percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 88th in average exit velocity, so he might be able to limit a Rangers team that has hit it hard, though right at defenders.
For the hosts, Leiter has improved significantly on his performance in 2024, when he was worth negative-1.6 WAR in just 35.2 innings across his rookie season and gave up fewer than three runs only thrice. This season, he’s started 16 games, and after a tough three-start stretch in mid-June in which he more closely resembled his 2024 form, he has a solid 3.60 ERA and 2.76 FIP over his last three appearances. He pairs a 97-plus-MPH fastball with an above-average slider and is backed up by the league’s best fielding unit. Though Leiter gives up lots of hard hits and doesn’t fool many batters, the Athletics have the seventh-lowest barrel rate and average exit velocity while drawing a below-average number of walks and whiffing at the fifth-highest rate.
Athletics at Texas Rangers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 Runs (-105)
Texas’ offensive struggles have been well-documented, as the team has the league’s sixth-lowest OPS so far this season, and Lopez is one of the Athletics’ better pitchers. Plus, their offense, while solid in general, has been less potent away from hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.
Strong Lean: Corey Seager 2+ Total Bases (-105)
Although the Rangers were awful offensively against the Tigers, Seager wasn’t part of the problem. The two-time World Series MVP went four-for-12 with a pair of doubles and three RBI’s. If he can figure out Skubal, he definitely can figure out Lopez.
