After some pretty grim times in Detroit, the Lions have been a public betting darling for a few years now. Hard to blame sports bettors for backing them, as the Lions have exceeded expectations by a wide margin three seasons in a row. After going 3-13-1 in 2021, Detroit made a massive leap to a winning record the following season, finishing 9-8 in 2022. They’ve improved by three wins in each season since then as well, winning 12 games in 2023 and 15 games in 2024. The Lions have been a great ATS team, and easily topped their win total in three consecutive seasons.
It’s been a tremendous run for the Lions, who were a couple plays away from potentially hanging on to reach the Super Bowl in 2023. That playoff success regressed in 2024, losing to Washington as a big home favorite in their first game of the postseason. Maybe the Lions paid the price for maxing out in the regular season and getting that 15-2 record.
Dan Campbell’s style has never been to take his foot off the gas, and I don’t think he will in 2025. But if we just look at what Detroit has lost from its 15-win team, regression has to be coming. There have been key losses on both sides of the ball, and not just on the field, but also from a coaching standpoint.
Let’s start with the coaching, because I believe there’s a chance these losses might have the largest impact on the team. Campbell and his “bite some kneecaps” attitude certainly deserve some credit as to why the Lions were able to turn the franchise around the way they did. But Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn were there for the entire ride, and considered arguably the best offensive and defensive coordinators in the NFL. Both left for head coaching jobs during the offseason, with Johnson going to the Bears, and Glenn the Jets.
There’s going to be a drop-off here, and players on both sides of the ball are going to have to adjust. Campbell will also have to adjust and be more involved than he ever has been. This transition is in no way guaranteed to work, and isn’t getting enough attention.
The Lions also lost a key piece on both the offensive and defensive lines. Frank Ragnow, the starting Center, was a first-round pick in 2018 and made four Pro Bowls. He abruptly retired at a young age this offseason. Levi Onwuzurike was a second-round pick by the Lions in 2021, and was expected to be one of the more productive starters of the defensive line in 2025. He suffered an ACL tear in July and has already been ruled out for the season.
Let’s also not forget than Aidan Hutchinson also has to re-establish himself this season. Not that one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL won’t have a good season, but he’s returning from a gruesome leg injury. It could take Hutchinson some time to get back into DPOY form, which isn’t something a now thin defensive line can afford.
Then there’s the schedule. While I don’t like playing the schedule game in the NFL because so much can change every week — injuries, teams being better/worse than projected, upsets etc. — Detroit’s road schedule is noticeably tough. It begins with a divisional road game in Week 1 at Green Bay, which is being priced around a coin flip. By Week 6, the Lions go on to play road games at Baltimore, Cincinnati and Kansas City. There will be early losses here. In November, there are consecutive road games at Washington and Philadelphia. Then in December there’s a trip out to Los Angeles to face the Rams. That’s seven very difficult road games.
Despite all of this, bettors are still on the bandwagon. As of July 21, 80% of the bets on DraftKings Sportsbook are on the Lions to go over 10.5 wins. However, those bets only make up 57% of the handle. That means the 20% of bettors that have played the under on the win total have been much larger wagers, making up 43% of the total money.
Count me in on the “sharp” side of this wager, as I don’t see this version of the Lions topping 10 wins in 2025.
Win Total Play: Lions UNDER 10.5 (-130) – 2-units
