This is the opener of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting Detroit Tigers.
Jack Flaherty is scheduled to pitch for Detroit while Paul Skenes should get the nod for Pittsburgh.
Tigers at Pirates prediction, preview
Jack Flaherty is having a season full of career-highs. That’s both good and bad. The K/9 of 11.09 is the highest ever, but so is the 1.7 HR/9. Last season, Flaherty was really, really good, primarily based on the 2.11 BB/9. Control has often been the big bugaboo for Flaherty. Well, through 100.2 innings this season, the BB/9 is back up to 3.58. The barrel rate is 11.5%, a career-high by a wide margin. For perspective, that number has been above 7.7% only once in eight prior seasons. At least the 4.36 FIP is lower than the 4.65 ERA.
He struggles against lefties, as the FIP is 5.24 while the K-BB% is only 13%. Against righties, those numbers are 3.52 and 26.9%, respectively. Flaherty has been better at home, but he still has allowed 13 of 19 home runs at home.
Flaherty has allowed more than three earned runs five times, with two blowups of seven and eight earned runs. He’s gone at least six innings only seven times. This will be the first time facing Pittsburgh this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates have struck out at the eighth-highest rate while having the worst ISO. The wOBA is 29th-best in MLB.
Paul Skenes is 4-8 on the season with a 2.01 ERA. The FIP is higher but still at only 2.41. The strikeout rate isn’t as robust as last season’s 33.1%, but it’s still a respectable 27.9%. Through 121 innings, Skenes has allowed only four home runs. He’s averaging 98.4 mph on the fastball, the barrel rate is only 4.9% while the average exit velocity is 88 mph. The swinging strike is 13.8% while the chase rate is 29.8%.
Skenes has been better on the road. He served up five of the six homers at home, and his K-BB% is five percent higher on the road.
Skenes pitched at least six innings 13 times, but failed to hit this mark in each of his past four starts. He’s allowed more than three earned runs only twice this season. He faced the Tigers five starts ago in Detroit, going six innings, striking out nine, walking five and allowing two earned runs on three hits.
The Tigers have struck out at the third-highest rate against right-handed pitching, while being 10th in ISO. The wOBA is 14th-best.
As for bullpens, Detroit has the 20th-lowest FIP, while Pittsburgh has the 14th-lowest.
Tigers at Pirates Best Bet
I’m liking a good ole’ fashioned pitcher’s duel.
