As the MLB season moves out of the All-Star break, this is a look at the updated odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the National League East this season.
NL East Odds
Heading out of the All-Star break, it is a two-team race for the National League East. The Phillies have a 0.5-game lead over the Mets as the division could go either way. It has been a shockingly bad season from the Braves, and while the Marlins and Nationals have some exciting young pieces, they are not ready to compete for the division yet. All three of those teams are at least 10.5 games back coming out of the break.
The Mets have been on a rollercoaster to start the season. They went on a run a few weeks into the season where they looked like the clear best team in baseball. However, they followed that up with a run where they looked like one of the worst teams in baseball, blowing their big division lead. They finally leveled out in the final stretch before the All-Star break, going 6-4 in their final 10 games. On the other side of the coin, the Phillies have been steady, leaning on their starting pitching to carry them through the first part of the season.
The Mets have the more dangerous bats, while the Phillies have the better starting pitchers. Kyle Schwarber is a superstar power hitter for the Phillies, but outside of him, nobody has jumped off the page. Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner are all having solid seasons, but not playing at the peak of their powers by any means. Harper and Schwarber are the only two bats in the Phillies’ lineup with an OPS of .780 or higher. Meanwhile, the Mets have five batters above that metric: Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. Schwarber is also the only member of the Phillies with more than 12 home runs, while the Mets have four guys with at least 18 home runs. Soto and Alonso have been particularly special, both ranking in the top 12 in the majors in OPS.
The Phillies’ starting pitching has been incredible this season. Zack Wheeler is arguably the best pitcher in the National League, ranking third in ERA and first in strikeouts. Just behind him is Cristopher Sanchez, who ranks fourth in ERA and seventh in strikeouts. Jesus Luzardo has also been amazing, ranking fourth in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez missed the first few weeks of the season so he doesn’t have enough innings to be considered an “eligible pitcher,” but his ERA is an awesome 2.15 on the season, which would be the second-best mark in the NL if he were eligible. The Phillies have four high-level starters.
The Mets will look to sustain their elite bats, and the Phillies will hope to keep up their high-level starting pitching. The division could come down to who raises their game more, the non-Schwarber bats on the Phillies or the Mets’ starting pitching. New York’s rotation should improve the rest of the season. David Peterson was an NL All-Star, but other than that, the Mets’ top pitchers have dealt with injuries all year. Sean Manaea just made his first appearance of the season before the break, Kodai Senga missed a big chunk of time with an injury and Frankie Montas has only made four starts. If the Mets can keep a regular rotation of Peterson, Senga, Manaea, Montas and Clay Holmes, with Tylor Megill mixed in, they should elevate their starting pitching numbers.
My pick to win the division is the New York Mets at +105. This seems like a true coinflip between the two, so taking the team at plus-money is the value play. Also, with the Mets getting so many pitchers back from the injured list, they seem to have more room for growth. Of course, if one of these teams decides to make a splash in the trade market before the deadline, that would also have a big impact on the odds. However, as things stand, the Mets are the best bet to win the NL East heading out of the All-Star break.
