Are you ready for some big risk for some even bigger reward?
All home run props are technically long shot bets, yet a home run prop in the MLB All-Star Game is like turning the dial to 11. We don’t really know how many at-bats a particular player is going to get. We don’t really know which pitchers are going to be on the mound outside of the first inning. We don’t really know anything, honestly. But that sort of makes things a little more fun, right?
Let’s break down my top three picks to go deep on Tuesday evening in Atlanta.
Top MLB All-Star Game Home Run Props
Ronald Acuna Jr. 1+ Home Run (+850)
If anyone on the National League roster has a shot at three plate appearances, it’s probably Acuna, who will be representing the Braves at Truist Park. The former MVP has wasted no time re-finding his power stroke coming off a lengthy IL stint, as Acuna sports incredible marks in expected slugging (.568), barrel rate (18.3%) and expected wOBA on batted ball events (.522). His 12 home runs in 193 PAs during the regular season also put the outfielder on pace for 37.3 long balls in 600 PAs — a ratio that is the best of his already storied career. His first at-bat of the night will have to be against Tarik Skubal, but with Garrett Crochet, Hunter Brown, Jacob deGrom and Max Fried all unavailable, this American League “bullpen” isn’t exactly as star-studded as you’d think. I like Acuna’s chances to touch up a replacement pick in the middle innings, just before the closers get involved.
Kyle Tucker 1+ Home Run (+1200)
Let’s use a similar line of logic for Kyle Tucker. The Cubs’ All-Star will be batting in the seven spot this evening for the NL, which is likely far enough away from the top of the order that Tucker won’t have to deal with Skubal in a nasty left-on-left scenario. However, I’ll gladly hope for an order of events that gives us a Tucker matchup with Shane Smith or Casey Mize later on in this game. Tucker has 17 home runs on the year and comes into the break with a 91st percentile expected wOBA (.390) and an 88th percentile expected slugging (.531). Would a home run in the All-Star Game make him any more money than the windfall he’s going to receive regardless of anything this winter? Of course not. But at +1200, it could make you or I a pretty penny.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Home Run (+1300)
There’s a couple of things to consider with this pick. First and foremost, Guerrero Jr. has some of the longest home run odds on this slate, and in an exhibition setting, we’re certainly not going with the chalk. Secondly, like Tucker before him, Vladdy’s placement in the five spot in the AL’s lineup should be far down enough where he’ll miss a matchup with the terrifying Paul Skenes in the first inning. Instead, his two at-bats will likely come off of other starting pitchers in the NL’s bullpen. The National League roster is missing the likes of Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which makes things easier. As replacements, the home team has a glut of left-handers, with David Peterson, Andrew Abbott, MacKenzie Gore and, in an honorary role where he probably won’t pitch, Clayton Kershaw. Let’s take our chances that Guerrero gets to face one of these southpaws — maybe two. Among batters with at least 75 plate appearances off LHPs in 2025, Vlad’s .455 expected wOBA ranks fifth-highest in MLB.
