As MLB pauses its season for the All-Star break, the WNBA will do the same later this week. For now, though, teams are finishing up the first half of the expanded 44-game season with a two-game slate tonight. MVP favorite Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx will travel to face a much-improved Angel Reese and the Chicago Sky at 8 p.m. ET before the Golden State Valkyries host the Phoenix Mercury at 10 p.m.
Here are my favorite player prop bets from tonight’s contests at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Angel Reese 30+ Points + Rebounds (+125)
Reese is in the middle of an incredible stretch, having recorded a double-double in each of her last eight games, averaging 17.6 points and 15.5 rebounds per game across that span and making nearly half of her field goal attempts. As she’s continued to demonstrate improvement, her role in the Sky’s offense has gone up, as her usage rate has gone up from 20.4% prior to her hot streak to 24.3% since. Across that span, she’s made 55.8% of her shots within five feet of the basket, which isn’t great on its own but is more than sufficient given her rebounding prowess. She’s recorded 30 or more combined points and rebounds and seven of her last eight games.
Two of those contests came against the Lynx, which has been easily the league’s best team this season. Minnesota sports an 18-4 record and a sterling 95.3 defensive rating, 2.4 points per 100 possessions better than the New York Liberty, while holding opponents to just a 41.2% mark from the field. Still, the Sky actually beat the Lynx on Saturday behind a 19-point, 11-rebound effort from Reese, as Collier’s 26 points weren’t enough to overcome poor shooting nights from most of her teammates. Minnesota has been exploitable on the boards, allowing the second-most second-chance points in the league this season, so I like Reese to pull in plenty of “mebounds”.
Napheesa Collier U21.5 Points (+100)
Reese’s improvement hasn’t just been an individual one, though; over the last eight games, Chicago is 4-4 and has posted league-average defensive numbers after being among the league’s worst units for most of the season. While the Sky have still allowed the fifth-most points per game, they’ve held opponents to the second-lowest field goal percentage and seventh-lowest three-point percentage, in large part thanks to the fact that they’ve allowed just a 57.6% field goal percentage within five feet, the third-best mark in basketball. As long as Chicago can avoid fouling — it has allowed the second-most free throw attempts over that span — it should be fine, and among the nine players who average 18 or more points per game, Collier gets to the line at the fourth-lowest rate.
While Collier is fairly prolific within five feet, she also attempts a lot of shots from floater range and from the short midrange, leading the league in made field goals from five-to-nine feet and ranking second behind Paige Bueckers from 10-to-14 feet. That’s where the Sky have been even better over the last eight games, holding opponents to just 21.5% shooting from five-to-nine feet and 30.8% from 10-to-14 feet. Though Collier scored 26 points on Saturday, she recorded just 21 during the teams’ previous matchup on July 6.
Veronica Burton O1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
The Valkyries have experienced lots of roster turnover in their first season in franchise history, but amid all the chaos, Burton has emerged as a star. Over the last 13 games, a span in which Golden State is 8-5, Burton has averaged 1.4 made triples per game at a 36.7% clip, including two or more in four of her last five games. In a dominant display against the Indiana Fever last Wednesday, she set a new franchise record with five made threes. Overall, the Valkyries are 14.6 points per 100 possessions better with Burton on the floor, and their effective field goal percentage drops by four percentage points when she’s not. Burton has displayed particularly impressive chemistry with second-year point guard Carla Leite.
Meanwhile, though the Mercury are the hottest team in the league, having won eight of their last 10 games, that hot form has mostly been driven by their offense, which has been the league’s best by 3.4 points per 100 possessions across that span. Plus, though Phoenix has also had the third-best defense, it’s primarily been a result of the team forcing a lot of midrange looks and closing out well on them. Three-point shooters have still done fairly well, connecting at a roughly league-average clip.
