Remember a decade ago when the Home Run Derby was bad and people sort of stopped caring about it? Aren’t you glad we no longer live in that reality? With a couple needed tweaks, the Derby has been fun again in recent years and the 2025 version seems like it’ll keep building on that success with a loaded crop of young stars.
Let’s take a look at some of the hundreds of props available on the DraftKings Sportsbook and pick out some winners for, in my opinion, the marquee event of MLB All-Star Week.
2025 Home Run Derby Props
Make the Final: Junior Caminero (+500)
I won’t go as far as picking Caminero to win it all, but I do want to back the sophomore third baseman in some capacity, as I simply do not understand his placement as the competitor with the longest overall odds (+1200). Caminero may not have the expected statistics or the track record of the other names in this Home Run Derby, but he’s not some slouch, either.
At the break, Caminero has 23 home runs to his name — tied for the 10th-most in MLB with Juan Soto. Some of that can be attributed to playing a majority of his games in a minor league baseball park with the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, yet Caminero also ranks 15th in the league in expected home runs (19.7). This isn’t some fluke. The simple fact of the matter is that the 22-year-old has jaw-dropping raw ability. You don’t register 97th percentile maximum exit velocity (116.5) without some skill, and Caminero’s just happens to be 100th percentile bat speed (78.0).
Maybe Caminero won’t win the whole thing. But it won’t be because he doesn’t belong. It also won’t be because he isn’t motivated, as I’d imagine the young phenom in a small market will be thrilled to make a name for himself on a national stage. There’s some real value here. I promise.
Winning Nationality: Rest of the World (+170)
This is essentially another way to back Caminero, but doing so with the added safety of also backing Oneil Cruz and Jazz Chisholm. In general, this just seems like a Derby where you’ll want to be betting on the underdogs — so, in this specific case, not on a U.S. born player to take home the trophy at -205. It’s simply a Home Run Derby without a lot of known quantities. There’s no Pete Alonso type this time around. In fact, Matt Olson is the lone competitor that has participated in a prior Derby. Well, a prior Derby at MLB All-Star Week.
Chisholm oft competes in an offseason Home Run Derby in the Bahamas, which will give him at least a little insight into how to pace himself. Then there’s Cruz, who has the second-best odds on the board to win tonight’s festivities. It’s not difficult to see why that might be, as the converted centerfielder sports 100th percentile marks in average exit velocity (96.3), barrel rate (22.2%) and bat speed (78.6) so far this season. Cruz is actually the only qualified hitter with better bat speed than the aforementioned Caminero. I guess you could say I have a type.
Most Home Runs by Any Player in Round 1: Under 25.5 (-115)
I think the mistake people might make with this prop is overlooking a key rule change made in the Home Run Derby between the 2023 and 2024 editions. In ’23 in Seattle, competitors were allowed to see as many pitches as possible in their three-minute hitting window in the first round. Were pitchers supposed to wait for the last ball hit to land? Yes. But no one was really following that guideline and it led to some amazing results, as four of the eight players went over this 25.5 total, including an eye-popping 41 from Julio Rodriguez.
However, in ’24, the rules were adjusted so that a player’s first round would last either the allotted three minutes or for a maximum of 40 pitches. There’s still some bonus time to consider here, but that pitch limit is a huge adjustment and, with it in place, no man hit more than 21 home runs in the opening round at Globe Life Field.
I have a feeling tonight’s Derby will play out in a similar fashion to last season’s. This prop just seems a little too high.
