With a star-studded field for the 2025 Home Run Derby, balls will be flying deep into the Atlanta night. Eight of the game’s most notable sluggers will have three minutes or 40 balls to hit as many home runs as possible, plus a bonus round that ends after they record three homer-less swings. The new format was tested last season, when the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Teoscar Hernández won the Derby in his first attempt.
Unsurprisingly, the competition favorite and home run leader, Cal Raleigh, has the shortest odds to hit the most first-round home runs on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below, I’ll highlight the slugger I back to make an early statement.
Junior Caminero to hit the Most HRs in Round 1 (+1000)
I’m backing the longest shot in the field, whose swing is built to clear fences. The 22-year-old has the second-fastest average swing speed in all of baseball, behind only Oneil Cruz, and since exit velocity is determined by both swing speed and pitch speed, having a fast swing becomes even more pivotal against batting practice lobs. Of the eight Derby participants, Caminero also swings with the ideal attack angle at the third-highest rate and records blasts on the fourth-highest percentage of his batted balls.
Plus, although Tomas Francisco — who guided Randy Arozarena to a 35-homer round in 2023 — will try to feed it to the inner part of the plate, Caminero is capable of hitting homers to all parts of the field. Of his 23 homers — the third-most among any Derby competitor — 12 have been hit to left field, five to center field, and six to right. That could mitigate some of his platoon disadvantage, since he hits right-handed and Truist Park is slightly more homer-friendly for southpaws.
Given the Tampa Bay Rays star’s flair for the dramatic in batting practice sessions — according to Rays manager Kevin Cash, he recently had such a sterling BP display that he received a standing ovation from visiting Toronto Blue Jays fans — his youth, and the fact that he plays in a small market, he might be more incentivized to win the contest than some other players in the field. This event has recently been dominated by Caribbean stars — a player of Dominican descent has won in each of the past three seasons — and Caminero could put his name in the American mainstream tonight.
