Betting season-long win totals is one of the more profitable markets across the NFL. Rather than a one-game matchup in which anything can happen, the season-long market provides a bit more security for the team to ultimately shake up as expected. At the same time, it takes just one key injury at a notable position for the team’s outlook to change drastically.
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering full win totals for every NFL team, including alternate lines for each team and a variety of other markets.
Before we dive into the specific markets for each team, here are some general factors to consider that could give you an edge in putting your bet slips in the best position for success.
Factors to Consider in NFL Win Totals:
Strength of Schedule:
You can only beat who is in front of you, and this outlook is different for every team in the NFL. Playing every team in their division is a key differentiating factor, with some teams having much clearer paths than others.
For example, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold -105 odds of winning over 9.5 games on DraftKings Sportsbook while the Minnesota Vikings hold +105 odds of winning over 9.5 games. The talent level and outlook of each of these teams must be the starting point of the analysis. But the outlook for picking up divisional wins is different for each team. The Buccaneers will play six combined games against the Falcons, Panthers, and Saints, while the Vikings will compete with the Packers, Lions, and Bears in their divisional matchups.
The divisional matchups make a significant chunk of each team’s schedule, but checking the rest of the schedule is important as well. Every year, we see good teams fall short of their playoff aspirations due to a tough schedule, with the Cincinnati Bengals a clear example of this last year. Check exactly what the pathway to wins is for each specific team before blindly believing they will exceed expectations.
Past Results & Roster Changes:
There are outlier examples, but it takes some time for a franchise to turn things around to a significant extent. Organizations tend to build in cycles and take year-by-year progressions, building toward what the core’s peak will be.
While injuries can distort a season outlook when reflecting on the previous years’ record, past results are still worth reflecting on. Getting a baseline for what last year’s results were is key for creating expectations. Even with plenty of roster turnover around the NFL, no team entirely replaces a roster in a year. Beyond just the wins and losses, be mindful of what strengths and weaknesses a team had and to what lengths they went to address these in the offseason. If a team was plagued by a lack of offensive line production last season and did nothing to address it, there should not be expectations that this will change.
Be mindful of what type of leap or reduction in wins and losses the team is looking to make, and the context of why the win total is set where it is.
Injuries:
Injuries are an unfortunate evil that come with every NFL season. While these are impossible to fully predict, some teams are built to sustain injuries more than others. Backing a team purely for a belief in one specific player is not the way to approach it, because one play could entirely derail this. Quarterback headlines this concern with there being no true way to replace the true franchise QBs.
But the other skill groups are worth monitoring for depth. Justin Jefferson is one of the consensus top wide receivers in the NFL. Losing him for a few weeks would be an obvious hit to the Vikings’ offense. But with players like Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor behind him in the depth chart in their pass-friendly offensive system, Minnesota could sustain some time without their star wide receiver more than a team like the Cowboys if CeeDee Lamb is to go down.
It is impossible to predict exactly which players will go down with injury, but be mindful of the wear-and-tear some of the key players on the teams you are eyeing have faced and their past injury history as well.
Don’t be Afraid to Fade:
Most of the time, when we discuss NFL win totals, it is thought of regarding backing a team you believe will exceed this total. But the unfortunate reality of the NFL is that there are more ways a season can go wrong than there are chances things go fully according to plan. There are plenty of teams that see their win total props get inflated due to some offseason hype or key roster change that may not be as impactful as some expect.
If you are skeptical of a team or believe that everything needs to go right for them to reach their total, it is worth backing that this does not come true. Whether you are fading or backing a team counts the exact same in the bet slips.
The NFL win totals market is a season-long bet that it takes the entirety of a season to decide. Be sure to comb through every edge and be mindful of the strength of schedule, past results, and what an injury could mean to each team. There is plenty of excitement coming ahead of the 2025 NFL season, but doing the research beforehand and monitoring these angles could be the difference between a win total cashing.
