The Liberty are hosting the Dream on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 166 points.
Below, I break down the matchup between the Liberty and the Dream and give a pick for the game.
Liberty vs. Dream preview, prediction
The Liberty and Dream are going head-to-head for the third time this season in New York on Sunday. The season series is even at 1-1 with both clubs winning at home. This season, New York is 13-6 and the club ranks second in net rating. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 12-8 and the team ranks fifth in net rating. Both clubs have struggled recently, with 2-3 records in their last five heading into Sunday’s matchup. Rest-wise, the Liberty haven’t played since this past Tuesday, while the Dream just competed this past Friday.
Sabrina Ionescu is having another sensational season for the Liberty, averaging a career-high 19.4 PPG to go along with 5.3 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game. Breanna Stewart also continues to be a force for New York, averaging 19.6 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Unfortunately, the Liberty remain without center Jonquel Jones (ankle), who is expected to remain sidelined until after the All-Star break. The center is a great two-way player, leading New York in plus/minus this season and with Jones inactive, the Liberty are an average 5-5 in 2025. However, New York is 4-1 at home with Jones inactive and the Liberty are 8-2 at home overall, so having home-court advantage for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Dream is very noteworthy.
Atlanta has a clean injury report for this matchup and the team is led by an elite backcourt in Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard, both of who were named All-Stars this season. Gray is averaging 18.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game – all of which are career-highs for the guard – while Howard is averaging 16.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game.
The Dream are strong at defending the outside shot, as the club is giving up the fewest made three-pointers per game, which is great news for this matchup against the Liberty, who are averaging the second-most made three-pointers per game in the league. That being said, with Atlanta’s defensive focus on the perimeter, the team is vulnerable in the paint, allowing the fifth-most points in the paint this season, which doesn’t bode well for the Dream with Stewart on the other side Sunday. This season, Stewart ranks sixth in the WNBA in paint points. Atlanta needs to slow down the veteran if the club wants to upset the Liberty, but that may be a difficult task with this game in New York.
Liberty vs. Dream pick, best bet
With the Liberty at home and with three more days of rest in its favor, New York should take care of business Sunday and defeat the Dream, despite Jones still being unavailable. As noted above, the Liberty are 8-2 at home this season and all eight of those wins have been by at least five points.
Looking at the betting splits, 72% of the handle for spread bets for this game are backing New York at -4.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook and tailing the sharp money here is wise.
