The Royals and Mets are facing off in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. Below, I break down my prediction and pick for the game.
Frankie Montas will be starting for the Mets, and Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for the Royals.
Royals vs. Mets prediction, preview
Frankie Montas is making his fourth start of the season for the Mets. He missed most of the season with an injury, but he made his return a few weeks ago. It has been a roller-coaster ride so far for Montas, just like much of his career has been. It was a fantastic first start, throwing five scoreless innings against Atlanta. It was then a disastrous second start, giving up six earned runs against the Pirates. Things leveled out some in his third start, giving up four runs in 5.2 innings against the Yankees. It wasn’t a flawless start, but against a tough lineup, he kept the Mets in the game and gave them decent length. Against a weaker lineup like Kansas City, the Mets will hope to get another strong start from Montas, similar to his first start against Atlanta.
Michael Lorenzen is having a rough season in Kansas City. He has a 4.61 ERA this season. If he ends the season at that number, it would be his worst ERA since 2021. Lorenzen was an All-Star in 2023 and had a 3.31 ERA in 2024. This season has been a massive drop-off from the form he has shown in the last couple of seasons. Right-handed batters have an OPS of .820 against him this season. The Mets rank seventh in the MLB in team OPS, and it will be tough for Lorenzen to keep them in check. That being said, Lorenzen has a great history against the big bats in the Mets’ lineup. Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo are a combined 8-for-49 (.163) against Lorenzen in their careers.
Royals vs. Mets pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is for the Royals and Mets to stay under 9.5 runs. While Lorenzen isn’t having a great season, he has been better at home. He has a 3.79 ERA in Kansas City, compared to 5.06 on the road. The Mets’ best bat over the last few weeks has been the left-handed Juan Soto, and Lorenzen has also been much stronger against left-handed batters than right-handers. If Lorenzen can slow down Soto, he should be able to keep this Mets lineup in check.
Frankie Montas should have a good start for the Mets. Despite giving up a couple of home runs, his stuff looked much better in his most recent start against the Yankees. His biggest problem this season has been giving up the long ball, but the Royals rank 29th in home runs this season. He should be able to shut down Kansas City in this game.
Both of these bullpens are solid as well. They both rank in the top half of bullpens in the MLB, measured by bullpen ERA. If their starters give good outings, the bullpens should do their part to keep the game under the total.
