This is the opener of a four-game series in Chicago between the White Sox and visiting Cleveland Guardians. The game was originally supposed to be played on Thursday, but it was postponed due to inclement weather.
Logan Allen is scheduled to pitch for Cleveland while Jonathan Cannon was slated to start on Thursday, but Shane Smith is now penciled in for Chicago.
Guardians at White Sox prediction, preview
Logan Allen is the epitome of a soft-tossing lefty. The fastball averages 91 mph, the swinging strike rate is 7.3% and the chase rate is 22.7%. So it’s not shocking to know that the strikeout rate is 17.9%. The walk rate is 9.9% because he has to nibble like a mouse with cheese. That said, Allen does know how to pitch. The average exit velocity is 87.7 mph while the hard hit rate is 34.1%. The ERA is 4.07 while the FIP is 4.44. Allen won’t be blowing the top off anything. Instead, he’ll eat innings without causing too much damage.
Allen has been slightly worse at home while lefties have hit four of the 10 home runs allowed.
Allen has allowed more than three earned runs four times. In his five most recent starts, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in all. Allen began the season finding it difficult to go five innings. He’s pitched at least six innings in four of the last six starts, with all of them over five innings. Allen faced the White Sox way back in his second start of the season. He went 4.2 innings, striking out four, walking two and not allowing an earned run on four hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the White Sox have struck out at the third-highest rate while having the 11th-best ISO. The wOBA is 19th-best in MLB.
Shane Smith is a big man at 6′ 3″ and 240 pounds. He was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2021 by the Milwaukee Brewers. In his final year of college, he underwent Tommy John surgery. Three years later, the Chicago White Sox selected Smith in the Rule 5 draft. This is his first taste of MLB action and, in 83.2 innings, he’s fared pretty well. The fastball averages 95.6 mph and the 4.2 ERA is supported by the 4.04 FIP. He’s only allowed seven home runs on the season. The swinging strike rate is 11.3% and the barrel rate is only 6.6%. That said, the hard hit rate is 46.1% and the walk rate is 10.1%. Lack of control is normal for young pitchers.
Smith has been site neutral while lefties have had more success against him.
In 17 starts, Smith has allowed more than three earned runs four times. Unfortunately, all of them have come in the four most recent starts.
The Guardians have struck out at the 15th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 15th in ISO. The wOBA is 26th-best.
As for bullpens, Cleveland has the 24th-lowest FIP while Chicago has the 28th-lowest.
Guardians at White Sox, Best Bet
It’s a case of the movable object vs the stoppable force. I’m not enamored with either starting pitcher. Both bullpens are susceptible for sure, but both offenses are near the bottom for runs scored on the season. The recent form for Smith is scary, though, and I’m leaning towards the over in this one.
