Everyone’s out there searching for MLB home run parlays, three- and four-leg big-winners, conservative value, or just otherwise fantasy baseball lightning for their baseball wagers. We’re after the canine energy, however. Which teams got that dawg in them? More specifically: which underdogs have that dawg in them tonight? Which represent the best plus-money bets tonight?
Baseball’s massive sample-size of 162 games means that it is one of the ripest sports for day-to-day underdog hawking. And, thanks to the sterling imagination of our Senior Editor, Garion Thorne, we here at DKN are now doing the hawking for you.
With that in mind, here are my favorite MLB underdogs tonight.
Best MLB underdog bets & picks today
Nationals ML (+120) at Cardinals
Washington enters this rubber match as a +125 underdog but with newfound swagger. They’ve won three straight, outscoring opponents 21-9. Mike Soroka’s 4.12 xERA beats the league average of 4.50. His 27 percent CSW rate ranks in the top 30 percent of starters. He’s limiting hard contact to 30 percent, compared to his season rate of 36 percent. Opposing hitters chase just 21 percent of pitches outside the zone, below the MLB average of 28 percent. The Cardinals counter with Miles Mikolas, whose 7.75 ERA and 6.04 xFIP paint a grim picture. He’s surrendering 1.65 home runs per nine innings—third-worst among qualified arms. Mikolas’s chase rate has cratered to 17 percent.
St. Louis’s bullpen ranks 21st in FIP, allowing 4.65 runs per nine in relief. Nationals relievers boast a 3.28 high-leverage FIP. Weather in St. Louis tonight checks in at 84°F with a southeast wind at 10 mph. That wind will carry balls toward center and right fields. Washington’s lineup, led by James Wood’s .412 OBP and .550 slugging this month, thrives against veteran arms. C.J. Abrams has hit safely in nine straight games versus winning teams. The over is irrelevant here. This is a moneyline play. Public handle sits 58 percent on Cardinals despite those staggering pitching splits. Washington is 6-1 in Soroka’s starts when the Cards’ bullpen ERA exceeds four. All signals flare green.
Padres ML (+100) vs. Diamondbacks
San Diego arrives as a +101 underdog but wields home park supremacy. Petco Park suppresses homers by 24 percent, tilting matchups in favor of contact-heavy clubs. The Padres rank fifth in MLB in BABIP this season, thanks to elite infield defense. Vásquez’s 4.89 xFIP hides upside against aggressive hitters tonight. His 50 percent groundball rate neutralizes Rodriguez’s soft-contact edge. He’s missing bats with a 22 percent CSW—better than league average. Rodriguez’s 3.21 xFIP looks pristine until you see his 1.10 HR/9 rate. I’m banking on Vásquez’s sinker-dominant arsenal and groundball-heavy approach to stifle barrel threats.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has launched 11 homers at Petco this season, posting a 1.036 OPS. Manny Machado crushes right-handers to the tune of a .560 slugging percentage. Tonight’s temperature reads 68°F with a gentle west breeze at five mph—ideal for scrappy rallies. Historical context shows underdogs at Petco cashing at a 53 percent rate this season.
Marlins ML (+135) vs. Reds
Miami’s offense boasts a 103 wRC+ over its last ten games despite underdog status. The Fish rank third in MLB with a .342 expected wOBA against lefties this month. Nick Lodolo’s 5.02 xFIP and 37 percent hard-hit rate rank him in baseball’s bottom quartile. He’s surrendered a .342 BABIP this year—signaling further regression. Miami counters with Cal Quantrill, whose 3.82 xFIP outpaces Lodolo’s by over a run. Quantrill’s 52 percent groundball rate ranks in the top 20 percent of starters. His 30 percent CSW rate sits in the 60th percentile league-wide. He limits barrels to just 5.0% percent, compared to Lodolo’s 11%. That disparity translates to fewer loud contact events. Miami’s bullpen holds a 3.28 high-leverage FIP, while Cincinnati’s relief corps checks in at 4.75.
Great American Ball Park’s 110 run factor tilts toward offense, and tonight’s forecast calls for 80°F with a northwest breeze at eight mph carrying balls toward the alleys. Those conditions favor Quantrill’s sinker-slider mix and Miami’s line-drive approach. The Marlins have covered as underdogs in 60 percent of their road games this season. Public money sits heavy on the Reds at 65 percent, inflating Miami’s line to +135. Historical splits show Miami is 6-2 in Lodolo’s career home starts, including a .305/.360/.525 slash line against him. Those aren’t fluky numbers—they’re matchup leverage. Sharp bettors moved this line from +120 to +135; Miami has an edge. Peripherals, the park factors, the weather—it’s allall aligning. No hedging here. Miami’s run creation, Quantrill’s superior peripherals, Lodolo’s contact issues, and park dynamics converge perfectly.
