Don’t look now, but the Red Sox have surged into playoff contention with six straight wins. Granted, playing the Nationals and Rockies tends to do that. Today’s matchup with the Rays represents a significant step up in competition. Tampa Bay, 50-43, has emerged as a contender in the American League. Which of these two rivals will come out on top tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s battle between the Rays and Red Sox.
The Red Sox are slight favorites (-115) over the Rays, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s matchup.
Rays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Despite beating up on cellar dwellers, Boston’s recent run shouldn’t be dismissed. Manager Alex Cora has managed to keep this group focused after last month’s Rafael Devers trade with the Giants. Since that blockbuster was completed on June 15th, the Red Sox have gone 13-9. Now, at 49-45, the team has a real shot at competing for a wild card spot in the wide-open Junior Circuit. That’s due in large part to an offense averaging 5.07 runs per game, fifth-most in baseball. Several bats have stood out over the last month, including Romy Gonzalez (.362 batting average), Trevor Story (.307), and Ceddanne Rafaela (.306).
The rub with the Red Sox is on the mound. Outside of ace Garrett Crochet, Boston has gotten erratic performances from its starting pitchers. Nobody sums this up better than Walker Buehler. Acquired this offseason, the righty has suffered through a miserable 2025 campaign (6.25 ERA). With that being said, there have been flashes of his former All-Star self. When the 30-year-old last faced the Rays in June, he tossed seven innings of three-run ball.
Tampa Bay comes into tonight scoring the seventh-most runs per game in baseball (4.74). While this lineup isn’t loaded with stars, it does have an enviable amount of depth. Seven different Rays regulars have notched a wRC+ of 100 or greater. That includes All-Stars Jonathan Aranda (155 wRC+) and Brandon Lowe (125 wRC+). Toeing the slab for the visitors will be Taj Bradley. While not as bad as Buehler this season, the young hurler is inconsistent at best (4.79 ERA). However, he’s had plenty of success in this spot. In four of his five career starts vs. Boston, Bradley has surrendered no more than two runs.
Rays vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rays ML (-106)
Given the way they’ve played in July, it’s tough to go against the Red Sox right now. Still, it’s equally difficult trusting Buehler not to implode. Bradley, also a coin flip, has a more extensive track record of success in this spot. In addition, the Rays own baseball’s second-best winning percentage on the road this season (.550%). A deeper, more talented Tampa Bay roster (as underdogs) is worth the risk for bettors on Thursday.
