The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the East Coast on Sunday. For the first time in a month, NASCAR is racing at a traditonal oval. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover.
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Driver Props — Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400
Joey Logano (-120) vs. Carson Hocevar (-110)
This matchup isn’t close. Hocevar has received significant attention lately, but not in a positive way. His aggressive driving has led to wrecks, tarnishing his reputation. Meanwhile, Joey Logano rarely gets the credit he deserves. Hocevar benefits from inflated odds, while Logano is undervalued. Based on the data and racing dynamics—considering Hocevar’s likely payback and Logano’s consistent performance—Logano should be a much larger favorite.
The intermediate track results are definitive. Hocevar ranks 34th in median finish at intermediate tracks in 2025, with a median finish of 30th. His only top-20 finish was a runner-up at Nashville. In contrast, Logano’s median finish is 14th (eighth overall). He has finished inside the top-20 in seven of eight races and inside the top-15 in six of eight. His worst finish was 22nd at Michigan—a track with few similarities to Dover.
Race Winner — Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400
Chase Elliott +550
Practice and qualifying were rained out on Saturday, which is not uncommon for Dover. Without practice data, no one knows exactly what they have, but current form at intermediate tracks in 2025 provides sufficient insight. Dover is a steeply banked, one-mile concrete track, similar to Bristol but with an extra half-mile that aligns it more closely with Charlotte, as legendary crew chief Chad Knaus believed. Knaus, who won numerous races at Dover, supports this comparison. For this intermediate-track race, recent performance data is more relevant than practice.
Chase Elliott has not been elite at intermediate tracks in 2025, ranking as a top-10 driver but not top-five. However, starting from pole position at a track where passing the leader is challenging elevates his top-10 speed to elite status. Additionally, Elliott will benefit from the No. 1 pit stall, which is critical at tracks where the aerodynamics of the Gen-7 car limit passing. His strong Dover record further bolsters his case: Elliott won the first Gen-7 race at Dover in 2022 and has secured four top-five finishes in his last six races there.
