The Orioles and Mets have a doubleheader in Baltimore on Thursday. Below, I break down my prediction and pick for Game 1.
David Peterson is scheduled to pitch for the Mets, and Charlie Morton will take the mound for the Orioles.
Orioles vs. Mets prediction, preview
David Peterson is having a solid season for the Mets, with a 3.18 ERA heading into this matchup. The bad news for Peterson and the Mets is that this start comes on the road. It has been a tale of two different pitchers, depending on whether Peterson is at Citi Field. At home, he is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA, and on the road, he is 1-4 with a 4.44 ERA. After a fantastic start to the season, Peterson went on an awful run through the second half of June, giving up 13 earned runs across three road starts. However, upon returning to Citi Field in his first start of July, he threw 6.2 innings and gave up just one run. The Mets will hope to see more of that David Peterson, despite this game taking place on the road.
Charlie Morton is starting to find a groove for the Orioles. The Orioles have won six of the past seven games that Morton started. His ERA over that stretch is 2.97. His season ERA is still 5.97, but that shows how dramatically he has improved over this recent stretch. If the Orioles can get the Morton of the last few weeks, he should stack up well against the Mets. If they get the Morton from the first part of the season, he could be in big trouble against some of the dangerous Mets bats.
Orioles vs. Mets pick, best bet
The Mets made a dramatic comeback in Tuesday night’s game, going on to win the game in extra innings. They are now just a 0.5 game behind the Phillies for the NL East and will want to keep this momentum rolling heading into the All-Star break. Their “Fantastic Four” rose to the occasion last night, with Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso combining for six RBIs. It will be tough for Morton to go to battle against the top of that lineup.
David Peterson is hard to trust on the road and is likely to give up a couple of runs in this game. However, he should be able to carry over the momentum from his previous start and make it a decent enough outing against Baltimore. The Orioles’ young stars are not quite living up to expectations this season, with their lineup ranking 17th in OPS this season.
Both of these pitchers have been brilliant at times this year and disastrous at others. It’s tough to trust either of them, which then turns attention towards the bullpens. The Mets have a definite bullpen edge, with a 3.80 bullpen ERA compared to Baltimore’s at 4.55.
When it comes to the lineups, the Mets have the edge again. Charlie Morton is a right-handed pitcher, and the Mets have the fifth-best OPS of any team against righties. David Peterson is left-handed, and the Orioles have the second-worst OPS against left-handed pitching of any team in baseball.
If either lineup is going to take advantage of the inconsistent opposing pitcher, it’s the Mets. If both pitchers struggle and it comes down to the bullpens, the Mets have the advantage there as well. Ultimately, New York should pick up the win in the first game of this doubleheader.
