The Reds and Marlins are facing off at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Wednesday night. Below, I break down my prediction and pick.
Andrew Abbott is scheduled to pitch for the Reds, and Sandy Alcantara will take the mound for the Marlins.
Reds vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Andrew Abbott is having a phenomenal season for the Reds. In his third season at the MLB level, he has taken his game to another level. He has a 7-1 record and a 2.15 ERA through 15 starts. He had a rough start his last time out against Philadelphia. However, in the four starts before that, he never gave up more than one earned run, including a complete game shutout against Cleveland. Abbott has great control over his stuff, surrendering just 1.1 home runs per nine innings and walking only 2.4 batters per nine innings. He has been great in high-leverage situations, ranking fourth among qualified pitchers in left-on-base percentage. So even when runners get on base, he isn’t allowing them to score runs.
Sandy Alcantara is having a disastrous season in Miami. Alcantara was the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, but ever since that season, it has been a rough go of things. Alcantara missed the end of the 2023 season with an injury that eventually led to Tommy John Surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2024 season. He made his return this season, but doesn’t look anywhere near the same guy. Alcantrara has a 7.01 ERA through 17 starts and has completely lost control of his stuff. That is the worst ERA of any qualified starter in all of baseball, a shocking fall for a former Cy Young winner. His 8.3% K-BB percentage is also bottom-ten in the MLB. Hopefully, the Alcantara of old will return eventually, but at the moment, it’s hard to watch him on the mound.
Reds vs. Marlins pick, best bet
The Reds sit at exactly .500 heading into this game and hope to keep their season afloat heading into the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Marlins are ten games out of the NL East lead, and they are unlikely to contend for the postseason. They have a couple of exciting young offensive players, but their pitching, led by Alcantara, has been a disappointment. Cincinnati has some exciting bats that will give Alcantara a tough time on Wednesday night.
Sandy Alcantara has given up 12 runs over his past two starts, and the Reds are likely to tee off on him as well. Elly De La Cruz has been particularly hot over the past month. In his past 24 games, he is batting .323 with a .942 OPS. He has been one of the best hitters in baseball over that stretch and should get a base hit, at the very least, against Alcantara.
The Reds are 11-4 in Andrew Abbott’s starts this year, and they should keep that run rolling tonight. The Reds should rack up a few runs against Alcantara, and once they get past the starters, these teams have nearly identical bullpens, measured by ERA. It will be tough for Miami to mount a comeback once Alcantara gets them in a hole, and Cincinnati should secure the win at home. That is why my best bet for this game is Reds moneyline parlayed with De La Cruz to get a hit, which comes out to +120 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
