Do we suddenly have a race for the NL West?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost five straight games, and their lead atop the division has been cut to five games over the streaking San Francisco Giants. San Francisco has won four straight and secured a series victory over the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies last night after an improbable Patrick Bailey walk-off inside-the-park home run.
The series finale will take place at 3:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco. Justin Verlander will toe the rubber for the Giants, while the Phillies will start Jesús Luzardo.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants prediction, preview
This matchup is characterized by guys who have recently struggled to reach their lofty expectations, although in Luzardo’s case, the rise and drop-off in form came in a much smaller time frame.
Through his first 11 starts of the season, the Peruvian was among the game’s best hurlers, with a 2.15 ERA and a 77:19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In the seven starts since, he’s pitched to a 9.49 ERA with a 38:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio, although his 3.88 FIP figure over that span indicates that he’s gotten exceptionally unlucky. He’s coming off of an outing on July 4 in which he gave up six runs (five earned) in just two innings of work. There isn’t anything glaring about his pitch profile from game-to-game, and he actually induced 11 whiffs in that start, but when the Cincinnati Reds did make contact, they were effective.
Verlander, meanwhile, is a far more accomplished pitcher, with three Cy Young Awards, an MVP, and 3,476 career strikeouts. He was elite as recently as his age-39 season, when he won the Cy Young after a two-year layoff while recovering from Tommy John surgery. However, over his last two seasons, he has tossed 161.0 innings with a 5.20 ERA and a 5-12 record. There isn’t much that he does well in this stage of his career, as he ranks below the median in all but two Statcast categories and in the bottom sextile in four. San Francisco has kept a tight leash on him, as he hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in a game since April 20. Thankfully, the Giants’ bullpen has a microscopic 2.95 ERA and has given up just two runs on nine hits in 7.1 innings so far this series.
Despite the results so far, Philadelphia’s offense is more dangerous than San Francisco’s. This season, the Phillies rank 10th in OPS and 17th in ISO, while the Giants rank 24th and 22nd, respectively. Philadelphia also has a higher OPS so far in July than San Francisco does. Since arriving in the Bay Area in a blockbuster trade, Rafael Devers has slashed just .234/.355/.377 and has only gone deep twice in 21 games, a far cry from the production that he was putting up with the Boston Red Sox. For the visitors, Trea Turner leads the NL in hits — he’s arguably the most egregious All-Star snub this season — and Bryce Harper is back after missing nearly four weeks with a wrist injury, though he hasn’t yet regained his form.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-132)
The Phillies probably “deserved” to win last night’s game, as tan inside-the-park homer is always somewhat fluky in nature. You could have made a strong case for either starter in both of the series’ first two matchups, but at this stage in their careers, Luzardo is better than Verlander.
Strong Lean: Jesús Luzardo Race to Three Strikeouts (-145)
Despite the fact that Verlander will pitch the top of the inning, he has just a 19.2% strikeout rate this season, which ranks in the 31st percentile league-wide. Luzardo has a 27.2% strikeout rate. Offensively, San Francisco has the 11th-highest strikeout rate, while Philadelphia has the ninth-lowest.
