The Diamondbacks and Padres face off in an NL West battle on Tuesday night. Below, I break down my prediction and pick.
Nick Pivetta is scheduled to pitch for the Padres, and Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Nick Pivetta is having a career-best season in his first year in San Diego. Through the first eight years of his career, Pivetta has never finished the season with an ERA under 4.00. So far this season, his ERA sits at 3.25. He has never had more than 10 wins in a season in his career, and he could match that number with a win tonight against Arizona. Part of the reason that he is having a strong year is the lack of home runs he is giving up. The long ball always gave Pivetta trouble throughout his career, but he is giving up just 1.1 home runs per nine innings this season. He is also walking just 2.2 batters per nine innings and generally has much better control of his stuff.
The Padres also have a great bullpen. Their bullpen ERA of 3.31 is the third-best mark in the National League this season.
Merrill Kelly is having a decent season, with a 3.55 ERA through 18 starts. After his 2024 season was derailed by injury, he is close to regaining his form from 2022 to 2023. He doesn’t have shutdown stuff by any means, but he has established a steady baseline that can be expected anytime he takes the mound. In each of his past four starts, he has gone either five or six innings and allowed an average of three earned runs per start, never allowing fewer than two or more than four runs.
The Arizona bullpen has struggled this season. Their 5.05 bullpen ERA is the second-worst figure in the National League this season.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
The Padres dropped the first game of this home series against the Diamondbacks on Monday night. They would love a bounce-back win in this pivotal series. San Diego is one game behind its division rival Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot. As the All-Star break approaches, it is time to start taking your place in the playoff picture seriously. Of course, there is still a lot of baseball to be played, but positive momentum heading into the break would be massive for a team like San Diego that will likely be scrapping for a playoff spot come October.
Meanwhile, Arizona is looking to keep its season afloat. It has several batters having fantastic individual seasons, but its pitching has let it down all year. That has the Dbacks 3.5 games behind the Padres in the Wild Card picture. A big performance in this series could put them in a much more favorable spot heading into the All-Star break.
However, the Padres should be able to take this one at home. Pivetta has been great for them this season and should handle this tough Arizona lineup. When these teams faced off in June, Pivetta gave up just two runs in seven innings of work against Arizona. In the same game, the Padres put up four runs in five innings against Kelly, including a four-hit performance from Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis has an incredible .827 slugging percentage, which includes four home runs, in his career against Merrill Kelly. My best bet for this game is for Tatis to rack up two or more total bases and for the Padres to win the game.
