This is the second game of a four-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting Miami Marlins.
Eury Perez is scheduled to pitch for Miami while Nick Martinez should get the nod for Cincinnati.
Marlins at Reds prediction, preview
Eury Perez is returning from Tommy John surgery and pumping 98.1 mph on the fastball. The control is off, though, which isn’t surprising. He’s walked 11 batters in 22 innings. The swinging strike rate is 11.9% while the chase rate is 35.4%. The ERA is 4.5, but the FIP is 3.27 while the strand rate is 61%. When he’s healthy, Perez is going to be a problem for the league.
Nine of the 11 walks have come against lefties while eight of the 11 walks have come on the road.
In his first four starts, Perez didn’t pitch more than four innings. In his most recent one, he went six innings, walked one, struck out seven and did not allow an earned run on one hit. That was at home against the Minnesota Twins. This will be the first time facing the Reds this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Reds have struck out at the fifth-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best in MLB.
Nick Martinez is the antithesis of Perez, as he only averages 92.6 mph on the fastball, has excellent control, but doesn’t miss bats. The ERA of 4.2 is supported by the 4.23 FIP. Martinez has allowed only 21 walks in 100.2 innings. He also limits hard contact, as the average exit velocity is 88.6 mph while the hard hit rate is 34.9%.
Perez has reverse splits, as righties have been more productive against him. Most of the numbers are slightly better on the road, but he’s allowed more home runs at home. Great American Small Park can be unforgiving.
Perez has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He got lit up for seven earned runs in 2.2 innings five starts ago. In his most recent outing, the Red Sox tagged him for four earned runs in 6.2 innings. Prior to that, he went eight innings at home against the Padres, striking out six, walking two and allowing only one earned run on one hit.
The Marlins have struck out at the 16th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 22nd in ISO. The wOBA is 18th-best.
As for bullpens, Miami has the 19th-lowest FIP while Cincinnati has the 21st-lowest.
Marlins at Reds, Best Bet
Both pitchers have wide range of outcomes. With this game being in Cincinnati, I’m going to side with the offenses.
