This is the opener of a three-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Seattle Mariners.
Logan Gilbert is scheduled to pitch for Seattle while Will Warren should get the nod for New York.
Mariners at Yankees prediction, preview
Logan Gilbert has been eating his frosted Wheaties because…wowzers! The strikeout rate is a whopping 36.8! Last season it was 27.4% and he has a career rate of 25.8%. The velocity hasn’t changed, but both the swinging strike and chase rates have spiked. Interestingly, the value of Gilbert’s pitches were all positive last season, while all of the values have fallen off this season. The ERA is 3.4 while the FIP is lower at 2.99. The one bugaboo is the eight home runs allowed in 50.1 innings. Gilbert landed on the injured list back in April due to right elbow flexor strain. He was activated in mid-June.
Lefties have had a smidge more success against Gilbert, while he’s been much better at home.
Gilbert has allowed over three earned runs twice, and those occurred in two of the last three starts. Gilbert has pitched more than six innings once, and that was the season opener. This will be his first time facing the Yankees this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have struck out at the seventh-highest rate while having the second-best ISO. The wOBA is fourth-best in MLB.
Will Warren is Ricky Vaughn’s long-lost cousin. The strikeout rate is 28.7% but the walk rate is 10.5%. In 84.1 innings, Warren has issued 39 free passes. The ERA is 5.02 but the FIP is way down at 3.24, while the BABIP is .336 with a 65.9% strand rate. When he gets hit, he does get hit hard, though. The average exit velocity is 91 mph while the hard hit rate is 45.8%.
Warren has been lights out against righties, but lefties have been another story. The FIP is 4.56 and six of the eight home runs have come off the bat of lefties. Warren has been site neutral.
Warren has allowed more than three earned runs five times. When he gets tagged, it’s with a capital T. Back in May against the Dodgers, he got lit up for seven earned runs in 1.1 innings. In his most recent start in Toronto, he allowed eight earned runs in four innings. The range of outcomes is extremely wide.
The Mariners have struck out at the 11th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 12th in ISO. The wOBA is 12th-best.
As for bullpens, Seattle has the 16th-lowest FIP while New York has the 12th-lowest.
Mariners at Yankees, Best Bet
Gilbert has struggled a bit in his last two road starts, and Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly pitcher-friendly, so I like the Yankees’ bats to get a little busy. The wild card is Warren. I’m going to side with the bat-missing ability at home.
