This is the second game of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Ryan Pepiot is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay while Jack Flaherty should get the nod for Detroit.
Rays at Tigers prediction, preview
Ryan Pepiot averages 95 mph on the fastball, has a swinging strike rate of 11.7% and is sporting a 3.34 ERA. He’s been lucky, though, with a .265 BABIP and 83.2% strand rate. The FIP is higher at 4.20. The strikeout rate is 24.5% but the chase rate is only 27.7%. The hard hit rate is 42.8% and he’s allowed 16 home runs in 102.1 innings.
Pepiot has reverse splits, as he’s been deadly against lefties while struggling against righties. He’s also been better on the road than at home.
Pepiot has allowed over three earned runs only twice, with one of those two starts ago against the Orioles when he got tagged for four earned runs in 1.2 innings. That was only the second time he failed to go at least five innings. Pepiot faced Detroit three starts ago, going five innings, striking out seven, walking two and allowing one earned run on three hits. That game was in Tampa Bay.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have struck out at the sixth-highest rate while having the ninth-best ISO. The wOBA is 10th-best in MLB.
Jack Flaherty surprisingly posted a 29.9% strikeout rate last season. He’s maintained the level as the strikeout rate is 29.1%. Other numbers haven’t been as good, though. The walk rate has gone from 5.9% to 9.9% while the HR/9 has gone from 1.33 to 1.61. The FIP is lower than the ERA, but 4.32 vs. 4.84 isn’t great, especially after he had a 3.17 ERA and 3.48 FIP last season. The barrel rate is 11.1% after being 7.7% last season and the hard hit rate is 10% higher than last season.
Flaherty has been much more effective against righties than lefties. The K-BB% is only 11.5% against lefties while the FIP is 5.48. Against righties, it’s 26.7% and 3.24, respectively. Flaherty has been better at home but has allowed more home runs there.
Flaherty has allowed more than three earned runs five times. The last four starts haven’t been great, as he got tagged for seven, eight, three and three earned runs. The two most recent starts were three earned runs given up at least. Flaherty faced Tampa Bay three starts ago and had his worst start of the season, allowing eight earned runs in 2.1 innings. That game was in Tampa Bay.
The Rays have struck out at the 13th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 11th in ISO. The wOBA is sixth-best.
As for bullpens, Tampa Bay has the 20th-lowest FIP while Detroit has the sixth-lowest.
Rays at Tigers, Best Bet
I don’t think Flaherty gets rocked again by Tampa Bay, but I have doubts that he returns to dominant form in this one. On the flip side, I do like Pepiot to continue pitching well.
