The 2024-25 Orlando Magic were the worst three-point shooting team since the 2015-16 Los Angeles Lakers, making just 31.8% of their attempts from deep this past season. That figure dipped to just 26.3% during their first-round series against the Boston Celtics.
Orlando badly needed to rectify its shooting woes entering the 2025-26 season, so it made the first major move of the offseason, dealing for Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies. Bane has made 41.0% of his triples during his five-year career, the ninth-best mark among active players.
With a wide-open Eastern Conference, the Magic project to be a fringe contender this season. After finishing 41-41 last season, their win total has been set to 51.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, the third-highest in the East.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Orlando Magic 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
Orlando was a better team than its record showed last season, as it was hit hard with a ridiculous string of injuries. Paolo Banchero suffered an oblique strain just five games into the season and missed the next two and a half months recovering, Franz Wagner missed nearly seven weeks with an oblique strain of his own, Moritz Wagner suffered a torn ACL, and 2023-24 All-Defensive honoree Jalen Suggs sustained a quadriceps injury that effectively kept him out after January 3. In 2023-24, the trio of Banchero, Suggs, and Wagner outscored opponents by 3.1 points per 100 possessions in the 1,324 minutes they shared the court; since then, they’ve certainly gotten better and their conference competition has certainly gotten worse.
Health is far from guaranteed, but neither Banchero nor Wagner has a particularly concerning injury history. Suggs does — he’s played only 211 of a possible 328 games in his NBA career so far — but in that regard, new backup point guard Tyus Jones should help. Jones has played in 65 or more games in each of the past eight seasons, averaging 8.3 points and 4.7 assists per game across that span and making 38.1% of his triples. Bane’s only major injury was a severe ankle sprain in 2024. The Magic have managed to retain their depth, with guard Anthony Black, forward Tristan da Silva, and centers Goga Bitadze and Moritz Wagner as quality reserves.
The major question is whether Banchero and Wagner can improve their shots. Of the two, I’m more optimistic about Banchero; while he shot just 32.0% from deep for the season, he went 40-for-115 (34.8%) over the last 19 games of the regular season and 12-for-27 (44.4%) in the playoffs. Wagner, meanwhile, has sat under 30% in each of the past two seasons and went seven-for-37 (18.9%) from beyond the arc against Boston. Concerningly, he shot just 32.0% on wide-open looks after shooting 31.5% on such shots in 2023-24 and 41.6% in 2022-23. He also saw a concerning dip in volume: wide-open threes dipped from 18% of his shot diet over his first three seasons to just 11% last season, though his looks should get easier with Banchero fully healthy.
Orlando Magic projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Cleveland Cavaliers Under 51.5 (-110)
Orlando was good last season with Wagner, Banchero, and Suggs all healthy, but the trio only overlapped for six games and it’s hard to glean much from five games of October basketball. The Magic’s defense, which was the league’s second-best in the regular season, is probably sustainable, especially if Suggs plays more than 65 games. I’m still concerned about the shooting, though; Black and Suggs haven’t shown much on offense, Wagner’s jumper has a hitch, and Wendell Carter Jr.’s experiment to become a stretch-five hasn’t gone well. Even after adding Bane and with a weakened East, I’m not sure if Orlando has enough to make an 11-win jump from last season.
