Back on NFL Draft night, for the first time since 2002, the Packers invested a first-round pick on the wide receiver position. Green Bay selected Matthew Golden at No. 23 overall, with obvious hopes that he’ll add a new dimension to the offense. Through two seasons under center, Jordan Love has run an offense that’s really been about spreading the ball around, and that should continue in 2025.
Golden’s strength is obvious — his speed. After playing two seasons at Houston, Golden transferred to Texas, where he blossomed into a first-round talent. In 16 total games, the speedster totaled 987 yards on 58 receptions — good for 17 yards per catch. While Golden’s big play ability is an exciting addition to Green Bay’s offense, let’s not expect too much from him in his rookie season in the NFL.
Let’s take a quick look at how the pass-catchers did last season with the Packers. Jayden Reed’s 55 receptions for 857 yards both led the team, and Reed was the only player to top 725 receiving yards — which happens to be the number DraftKings Sportsbook set Golden’s prop at this season. In a very balanced attack, Reed has still established himself at the WR1 in this offense.
After Reed, Tucker Kraft finished with 50 grabs for 707 yards, Christian Watson hauled in 29 balls for 620 yards, Romeo Doubs snagged 46 for 601 yards, and Dontayvion Wicks rounded it out with 39 for 415 yards. As I’ve mentioned, balance. The most notable news that does work in Golden’s favor is that Watson likely will begin 2025 on the sidelines, after tearing his ACL late last season. However, Watson is expected back in the early portion of 2025, and the Packers even bolstered the receiver room in the meantime by adding Mecole Hardman.
It was a similar situation in 2023, Love’s first season as a starter, when Reed led the team with 793 receiving yards. He was, once again, the only player to top the 725 mark. But even in Aaron Rodgers’ final season with the Packers in 2022, Allen Lazard was the only player to top 725 receiving yards. Green Bay’s offense has essentially run this way ever since Davante Adams’ departure.
Jordan Love has a lot of mouths to feed in this Packers’ offense, and while Golden will get his at times, having the highest season-long receiving yardage prop on the team seems a bit lofty. Golden is set at 725.5, while Reed is a modest 700.5, followed by Kraft at 600.5. The rest of the guys aren’t on the board, but will clearly be major factors in the offense.
While Golden very well may develop into an impact player for the Packers down the road, it’s tough to imagine him having a big season as a rookie with all the competition at his position. Of course, while we never root for them, injuries are also part of the equation when playing a season-long under. Golden played in every game during his season at Texas, but missed some games during both of his season’s with Houston. Sometimes even a minor injury that costs a couple of games is the difference in a season-long under.
I’ll trust the numbers that recent history gives us here and play Golden to stay under his prop.
Player Prop: Matthew Golden UNDER 725.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – 1-unit
