Last season, the Cleveland Cavaliers won 64 games to top the Eastern Conference standings in year three of the Darius Garland-Donovan Mitchell-Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen core, as Mobley won Defensive Player of the Year, Kenny Atkinson earned Coach of the Year, and Mitchell was named to his first-ever All-NBA First Team. However, the Cavaliers came out flat in the postseason, falling in five games to the eventual Eastern Conference-winning Indiana Pacers in the second round.
The East is wide-open this season, with the Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum and the Pacers’ Tyrese Haliburton both set to miss most of the season (in Haliburton’s case, the entire season) with torn Achilles tendons. It’s unsurprising, then, that Cleveland has the conference’s highest win total over-under, with 55.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Cleveland Cavaliers 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
The Cavaliers made only one notable move this offseason, dealing Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls for Lonzo Ball. In 55 games (22 starts) this season, Okoro averaged 6.1 points per game and played solid perimeter defense before falling mostly out of the rotation in the playoffs, while Ball averaged 7.6 points, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals in 22.2 minutes per game and made 34.4% of his three-pointers after missing two and a half seasons due to a major knee injury.
If healthy, Ball is one of the league’s better three-and-D guards and provides excellent veteran leadership, but health is always a question mark for him. Theoretically, Ball should be a slight upgrade over Ty Jerome, who averaged 12.5 points per game and made 43.9% of his threes last season before inking a three-year, $28 million pact with the Memphis Grizzlies.
Barring a move to bring LeBron James back to Ohio, this season will mostly be about running it back. Cleveland benefited from remarkable health during the 2024-25 regular season, as Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Allen combined to play 299 of a possible 328 games, several of which were designed rest days towards the end of the season. But Garland’s toe sprain greatly hindered him in the loss to Indiana, and he’s set to miss part of the 2025-26 season while he recovers. Mitchell, Allen, and Mobley have been fairly durable throughout their careers, while Garland has a significant injury history.
Mobley, who was named an All-NBA Second Teamer at just 23 years old, should only be getting better, especially as his offense catches up to his otherworldly defense. Mitchell, who will be 29 when the season starts, should be squarely in his prime. Allen should be trusted to stay on the court, defend the paint at a fairly high level without fouling, gobble up rebounds, and score efficiently, and his deal should be fairly movable if the Cavaliers want to cut down on their monumental luxury tax bill. That’s not to mention Cleveland’s other depth pieces: sharpshooters Sam Merrill, Max Strus, and Dean Wade and versatile wing De’Andre Hunter.
Cleveland Cavaliers projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Cleveland Cavaliers Under 55.5 (-110)
Winning 56-plus games in two straight seasons is hard; since 2015-16, only the 2023-25 Oklahoma City Thunder, 2022-25 Celtics, 2018-20 Milwaukee Bucks, 2017-19 Toronto Raptors, 2015-19 Golden State Warriors, and 2015-17 San Antonio Spurs have accomplished that feat. Each of those teams had an undisputed top-five player on their roster, and as accomplished as Mitchell is, he’s not quite that caliber. Yes, the East projects to be rather weak, but the Cavaliers still have to play 30 games against the absurdly-stacked West. Cleveland got off to an unsustainably hot start last season — it was 33-4 at one point — and was a good but not historically great unit in the second half. There’s no shame in a 54-28 season.
