Coming off a disappointing 7-10 record in 2024, it’s been a while since expectations were this low for the Cowboys. It was the fifth losing season for Dallas since 2003, which was actually the last time the Cowboys has a win total set this low. The win total is set at 7.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook for the 2025 season, which is the lowest we’ve seen since it was seven flat back in 2003 (16-game season).
Maybe it’s a good time to buy low on the Cowboys, but their flaws are easy to see. Only the Panthers allowed more points in 2024, with Dallas giving up 27.5 points per game. Outside of Micah Parsons, the defense on paper doesn’t look very threatening in 2025. The Cowboys’ running game has also fallen off a cliff in recent seasons. Dallas barely ran for 100 yards per game in 2024, which ranked 27th in the NFL. Rico Dowdle rushed for over 1,000 yards on the season, but there was no real secondary option, as Ezekiel Elliott totaled just 226 rushing yards in his return to Dallas. Neither of those players are on the current roster.
Dallas’ new backfield tandem will be Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, both of whom really struggled last season. It also invested a fifth-round draft pick on Jaydon Blue. Long story short, the Cowboys didn’t put themselves in great position to expect much improvement running the ball or playing defense in 2025. Brian Schottenheimer takes over as head coach, promoted from the offensive coordinator position. The one thing the Cowboys have done consistently in recent seasons is pass the ball when Dak Prescott is healthy. This feels like the perfect storm to see that trend continue in 2025.
Let’s key in on Prescott’s healthy seasons over the last six years. In 2019, Prescott threw for a career-high 4,902 yards, which was second in the NFL. In 2021, he threw for 4,483, which ranked seventh in the NFL. In 2023, Prescott had 4,516 yards, which was third in the NFL. In the years in between, Prescott played 12 or fewer games, suffering season-ending injuries.
In the 25 games that Dak has played over the last two seasons, he’s averaging 259.76 passing yards per game. That comes out to about 4,415 passing yards over a full 17-game season. While the offense has revolved around CeeDee Lamb, who should still put up huge numbers, let’s not forget that Dallas rolled the dice and added George Pickens opposite Lamb. That gives Prescott the best receiving duo he’s had in years as he returns from his hamstring injury.
Given the game scripts that we can expect in 2025 with a well below average defense and an untrustworthy rushing game, this should be a big season for Prescott and the passing game — particularly with an offensive-minded head coach that has been in the OC role in Dallas already.
I’ll back Prescott to go over his season-long passing prop, which essentially just feels like a play on him staying healthy enough to suit up for at least 15 games. Look for some big numbers through the air in Big D.
Player Prop: Dak Prescott OVER 3850.5 Passing Yards (+100) – 1-unit
