This is the opener of a three-game series in Chicago between the White Sox and visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Jose Berrios is scheduled to pitch for Toronto while Sean Burke should get the nod for Chicago.
Blue Jays at White Sox prediction, preview
Jose Berrios has been the vanilla bean of MLB, often tasteful but pretty much meh. If he was one of the Three Little Bears, he’d be just right; not too hot, not too cold. He’s averaged 93 mph on the fastball, the FIP was in the high 3s, the K/9 was around 8, the BB/9 was mid-2s and the HR/9 was a tick over 1. Probably his best characteristic was that he often pitched at least 190 innings in a season. At age 31, he’s pitched 106.1 innings so far this season. While the ERA is 3.64, the FIP is higher at 4.11. The strikeout rate is 21.1% while the walk rate is 8.5%. Pretty much all the numbers are….well, meh.
Berrios has reverse splits, as righties have done more damage against him. The FIP is 4.69 compared to 3.55 and the strikeout rate is lower while he’s allowed more home runs against righties. As for venue, Berrios has been site neutral.
Berrios has allowed more than three earned runs five times, with three of those giving up six earned runs. In his most recent start, the Yankees tagged him for six earned runs in 4.1 innings. Berrios has gone at least six innings 11 times, with three of those at least seven innings. He’s failed to go five innings twice. Berrios faced the White Sox three starts ago. He went 7.2 innings, struck out five, walked three and did not allow an earned run on two hits.
Against right-handed pitching, Chicago has struck out at the eighth-highest rate while having the 29th-best ISO. The wOBA is 30th-best in MLB.
Sean Burke was great in his first taste of MLB action last season, posting a 28.9% strikeout rate and 1.42 ERA. The sample size was small, though, at only 19 innings while the FIP was much higher at 3.32. In 87 innings this season, the strikeout rate is 19.2% while the walk rate is high at 10%. The 4.84 FIP is much higher than the 4.03 ERA and he’s allowed 13 home runs.
Burke doesn’t have discernible splits.
Burke has allowed more than three earned runs four times. Four starts ago, the Astros tagged him for seven earned runs in 3.2 innings. Since then, he’s gone 5.1, five and six innings while allowing only one, zero and one earned run. This will be the first time facing Toronto this season.
The Blue Jays have struck out at the lowest rate against right-handed pitching while being 19th in ISO. The wOBA is 15th-best.
As for bullpens, Toronto has the 14th-lowest FIP while Chicago has the 24th-lowest.
Blue Jays at White Sox, Best Bet
I like Berrios to shut down the White Sox again. As for Burke, he’s always in play to get lit up, but I think he keeps it manageable. The wild card is the bullpen.
