This is the opener of a three-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting Miami Marlins.
Janson Junk is scheduled to pitch for Miami while Brady Singer should get the nod for Cincinnati.
Marlins at Reds prediction, preview
Janson Junk had pitched a total of 39.3 innings since 2021. He’s thrown 37.1 innings this season and been freaking awesome. When he first entered the league, the fastball averaged 92.7 mph. It’s up at 94.1 mph now. The 3.62 ERA is good. The 1.83 FIP is Tony the Tiger grrreeeeaaatttt! Junk has only given up two walks and one home run. The strikeout rate is 21.9%. The walk rate is a microscopic 1.3%. Now, the average exit velocity is 92.5 mph while the hard hit rate is 50.9%. The 2.6% HR/FB is well below the 20% he posted earlier in his career. This is the time to insert the Larry David GIF.
Junk has been better against righties, but he hasn’t been bad against lefties. The home/road splits, though, are well in favor of doing better at home. The FIP is 0.67 compared to 3.04 on the road.
Junk has gone six innings only once this season, but that came in his most recent outing. He’s allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of eight starts. In two starts, though, he gave up five earned runs in both. Now he has to pitch in Great American Small Park. This will be the first time facing the Reds this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Reds have struck out at the sixth-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. The wOBA is seventh-best in MLB.
Brady Singer used to average 93 mph on the fastball. It’s down to 91.6 mph now. The ERA is 4.36 while the FIP is slightly lower at 4.17. The strikeout rate is a decent 21% but the walk rate is high at 10%. Singer has allowed 10 home runs in 88.2 innings. The average exit velocity allowed is 91.2 mph, the barrel rate is 11.2% and the hard hit rate is 44.8%.
Lefties have hit eight of 10 home runs off of him and Singer has been much better on the road, especially in home run prevention.
Singer has allowed over three earned runs three times. One of those came two games ago when he allowed four earned runs to the Yankees at home. Prior to that, the Astros tagged him for seven earned runs back in early May. Singer faced Miami at the end of April, striking out eight and allowing only two earned runs in six innings. That game was in Miami, though.
The Marlins have struck out at the 16th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 22nd in ISO. The wOBA is 17th-best.
As for bullpens, Miami has the 21st-lowest FIP while Cincinnati has the 26th-lowest.
Marlins at Reds, Best Bet
I have no faith in either pitcher and I think both offenses think it’s July 4th in Great American Small Park.
