This is the final game of a three-game series in Sacramento between the Athletics and visiting San Francisco Giants.
Hayden Birdsong is scheduled to pitch for the San Francisco while Jacob Lopez should get the nod for the Athletics.
Giants at Athletics prediction, preview
Hayden Birdsong was hyped coming into the season after putting up a K/9 of 11 in 72 innings last season, his first in MLB. The control, as with most young pitchers, was Ricky Vaughn-esque, and it’s still bad this season, although slightly less. The season-long stats look good for Birdsong, but most of the success came in a relief role. As a starter, Birdsong has allowed 23 of the 29 earned runs while most of the advanced stats are better as a reliever, albeit not by significant amounts. He is still young, averages 95 mph on the fastball and has made only eight starts this season, so things could click at any moment. Or he gets sent back to the pen.
Lefties have had more success against Birdsong while he’s been better on the road. Six of the nine home runs allowed have come off the bat of lefties and the FIP is 5.32. At home, the FIP is 4.87 compared to 4.16 on the road. The K-BB% is 5% lower at home.
In the eight starts, Birdsong has pitched at least five innings only three times. He’s allowed more than three earned runs twice. His last four starts have been three, seven, four and three earned runs allowed. This will be the first time facing the Athletics this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Athletics have struck out at the 11th-highest rate while having the ninth-best ISO. The wOBA is 11th-best in MLB.
Jacob Lopez is a soft-tossing lefty that only averages 90.8 mph on the fastball with a 53.5% flyball rate, yet the ERA is 3.88. The FIP is higher at 4.26, so he’s been fortunate and the walk rate is at 8.7%, but the strikeout rate is 27.2%. The swinging strike rate is 12%. How does he do it? Despite low velocity, the fastball is his best pitch, posting a -3.4 runs above average. The barrel rate is only 5.6% while the hard hit rate is 34.4%. He has walked 18 and allowed seven home runs in 46.1 innings, though.
The sample size is small, but righties have had decent success against Lopez. Six of the seven home runs have come off the bat of righties. Lopez has been more effective at home, but four of the seven home runs have come there. The K-BB% is 13% better at home.
Lopez has allowed more than three earned runs twice: five and seven earned runs. Lopez allowed three earned runs in 3.1 innings in his most recent start but, prior to that, he allowed zero, one, zero and zero in seven, six, six and four innings. This will be the first time facing the Giants this season.
The Giants have struck out at the seventh-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being 19th in ISO. The wOBA is 27th-best.
As for bullpens, San Francisco has the eighth-lowest FIP while the Athletics has the 27th-lowest.
Giants at Athletics, Best Bet
I think there’s a good chance the Athletics do some damage against Birdsong. That said, the leash is short for Birdsong right now and the Giants bullpen is very good. In addition, Birdsong has good stuff and there’s the chance he starts putting things together. Lopez scares me because I feel like he’s living on the edge and things could explode at any minute. But, limiting hard contact is a skill and he obviously knows how to pitch. I do think the Giants put up some runs against him, but I don’t see an offensive explosion.
