Kevin Durant is a Houston Rocket.
I repeat: Kevin Durant is a Houston Rocket.
Unsurprisingly, adding a six-foot-10 sniper tends to increase teams’ win totals and championship probabilities, so it’s no surprise that the Rockets have an over-under of 54.5 wins at DraftKings Sportsbook, the second-highest in the Western Conference and the third-highest in the NBA.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Houston Rockets 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
Houston had pretty much the perfect offseason. In their deal to land Durant, the Rockets didn’t give up much: just Jalen Green — who didn’t seem to figure much into their future plans — Dillon Brooks, the 10th overall pick (Khaman Maluach), and five second-rounders. Sure, Green is a freakishly athletic 23-year-old who averaged 21.0 points per game last season, but he was inefficient and his defense leaves a lot to be desired. He’s a small price to pay for Durant.
Houston replaced Brooks with a better player, Dorian Finney-Smith. Finney-Smith is a low-usage three-and-D wing who averaged 8.7 points, 3.9 boards, and 1.3 combined steals/blocks per game last season while making a career-high 41.1% of his three-point attempts. With him on the roster, the Rockets have the opportunity to emphasize switchability and spacing without sacrificing size, putting Finney-Smith at power forward and newly-extended Jabari Smith Jr. at center. They could also utilize Durant at either forward spot or at center; he played 25% of his minutes at the five last season with the Phoenix Suns. Alternatively, Houston could go ultra-big after adding yet another voracious glass-cleaner, Clint Capela, in free agency.
Add that to another leap from Amen Thompson, who averaged 15.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game on a 57.3% effective field goal percentage after January 1 and was named to the All-Defensive First Team, and the Rockets could be scary next season. They also reached a team-friendly extension with point guard Fred VanVleet, a veteran leader and defensive-minded floor general, and should get further improvement from Alperen Şengün. He was just one of four players, along with Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Domantas Sabonis, to average at least 19 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists per game last season, and he won’t turn 23 until later this month.
Houston Rockets projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Houston Rockets Over 54.5 (-120)
It’s easy to get lost in the hype, but this Houston team is legitimate. Durant might no longer quite the game-changer that he was in his MVP days, but he’s still a six-foot-11 wing who averaged a ludicrously efficient 26.6 points per game last season and would’ve undoubtedly made his 12th All-NBA team had a sprained ankle not cut his season short, and the Rockets gave up nothing of substance to acquire his services. This is a team that won 52 games last season without him, with Thompson and Şengün both improving throughout the course of the season. Even in a stacked Western Conference, I’d go over 57.5 if I could.
