Big old slate of baseball games here tonight on Sunday. And we sure love to see it. The weekend still has so much left to resolve that Sunday Night Baseball between the Rangers and the Padres doesn’t begin until 9:05 ET. And there’s still the Athletics vs. Giants game to go after that. I’ve written up previews on Cubs vs. Cardinals, Dodgers vs. Astros, and Diamondbacks vs. Royals so far for the evening slate. I will link them here shortly. Having said that, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets today surrounding my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Michael Busch o0.5 RBI vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Across his last three games, he’s racked up 12 RBIs, four homers, and 17 total bases. His slugging percentage over that stretch sits north of 1.200—video game numbers that can’t be ignored. The matchup is tailor-made for him to stay scorching hot. Erik Fedde has been battered recently, coughing up 15 earned runs across his last nine innings. That’s a ghastly 15.00 ERA over that span. Busch has already torched Fedde in his career, going 4-for-7 with two homers and a double. That’s a 1.714 slugging percentage in head-to-head at-bats. This isn’t a small-sample fluke.
The advanced splits only strengthen the case. Busch owns a .345 average with runners in scoring position this season and a 1.031 OPS at home. Fedde, meanwhile, is allowing a .312 opponent batting average with runners on base and a .518 slugging percentage against left-handed hitters like Busch. The weather helps, too. Winds at Wrigley tonight are blowing out to right-center at 11 mph, a perfect setup for Busch’s pull-side power. The Cubs have averaged 6.1 runs per game over their last seven at home. Everything lines up. Busch’s red-hot bat, Fedde’s implosion, the wind, and the splits — this is value you can’t pass up. I’m locked in on Busch to drive in a run and keep the fireworks going.
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+130) vs. Kansas City Royals
The D-backs’ team wRC+ at home sits at 118, which means they’re generating 18% more runs than league average in their park. The Royals? A paltry 84 wRC+ on the road — 16% below league average production. That’s a chasm.
Dig into slugging, and the disparity widens. Arizona’s .448 team slugging percentage is propped up by a league-best 10.9% barrel rate at home. They square balls up consistently and punish mistakes. KC’s .364 slugging is backed by a bottom-five 6.2% barrel rate on the road. The power simply doesn’t travel for the Royals.
Michael Lorenzen enters tonight with a 4.82 ERA, but his xERA is an ugly 5.05. His .268 expected batting average against signals trouble against a lineup this dangerous. Arizona’s lefty-heavy core is lethal against Lorenzen’s profile; he’s allowing a .516 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters this season. The Snakes can stack that side.
On the other side, Arizona’s bullpen boasts a 3.62 xFIP over the last 30 days, tightening up late. KC’s is over 4.50 in that span — a disaster waiting to happen against a team that’s 25-9 when leading after six innings at home. This is a clean rip at plus money. Arizona rolls.
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals u7.0 total runs (+100)
I’m locking in on the total tonight, and I see sharp value on the under 7.5 runs at Wrigley. The market’s been spooked by back-to-back overs in this series — both games blasted past double digits. That’s noise, not signal. Tonight’s conditions flip the script entirely. We’ve got steady 10 mph winds blowing in from center at Wrigley, one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly weather setups. Historically, unders at Wrigley cash at a 60% clip in these conditions. This season, Wrigley unders with similar wind patterns are 9-3.
Matthew Boyd thrives in these spots. His 2.65 ERA at home speaks volumes, but dig deeper. Boyd holds opponents to a .214 average at Wrigley, with a sub-30% hard-hit rate in night games. His command is elite in this park, and his .280 xwOBA at home backs it. St. Louis enters tonight ice-cold at the plate, posting just a .277 OBP in its last seven and a .219 average on this trip. They’ve managed only six extra-base hits in their last five games combined.
Erick Fedde’s surface numbers don’t inspire trust, but there’s hidden sharpness here. His xERA on the road is 3.65, and his HR/FB rate has been inflated by hitter-friendly parks. The wind and the night air at Wrigley level that out. Chicago’s bats have cooled, with a .298 wOBA across the last week and heavy reliance on homers for run production. The wind knocks that out of the equation.
The bullpens matter, too. Both sides enter rested after using back-end arms efficiently this series. Both clubs rank top 10 in bullpen xFIP over the past 14 days. The number’s inflated off recency bias.
