All 30 teams are on the schedule for Major League Baseball this Saturday, with nine games in the afternoon and six under the lights. While all 30 teams are on the board, some are in especially attractive matchups and environments. Let’s look at some home run props for this Saturday to keep the fireworks flowing into the weekend. After looking at the home run props on the board for Saturday’s action, my top three home run props are from Dansby Swanson, Christian Walker and Mickey Moniak.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences with today’s home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is on deck.
The upside and fun part of grabbing home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they do hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard — get those QTs and RTs ready on X! Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at small money in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Saturday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Dansby Swanson to record 1+ home runs (+285)
The Cubs had a Fourth of July fireworks display at Wrigley Field with a franchise-record eight homers on Friday. Swanson got in on the action with his 15th of the season as part of his 2-for-4 day.
The Wrigley Field conditions are ideal for homers again on Saturday with the wind blowing out and warm weather conditions. The Cubs will hope to continue their home run parade, but they’ll be in a tougher matchup against lefty Matthew Liberatore.
Liberatore has done a good job limiting lefties, which is why I’m going with Swanson and prefer targeting the right-handed hitting Cubs for home run props this Saturday.
Swanson has multiple hits in seven of his last 17 games with a 44.2% hard-hit rate and three homers. He has hit seven of his 15 homers at home with a .332 wOBA and five of them against lefties like Liberatore.
Swanson will match last year’s home run total with his next blast, and that could come Saturday in the homer-friendly confines of Wrigley Field.
Christian Walker to record 1+ home runs (+400)
Sometimes a certain hitter just seems to excel in a specific venue, and that seems to be the case with Walker at Dodger Stadium:
Walker’s homer was his 11th of the season and his fourth since June 1. Over his 28 games since then, he’s hitting .270 with a .326 wOBA and a 45.1% hard-hit rate.
In his career, Walker is hitting a blistering .357 with 20 home runs in 43 games at Dodger Stadium. He will get a good matchup against lefty Justin Wrobleski after Shohei Ohtani opens the game for the Dodgers.
The Astros hung 18 runs on L.A. in the series opener, and Walker and the rest of the lineup will look to keep crushing at Chavez Ravine on Saturday night.
Mickey Moniak to record 1+ home runs (+450)
The Rockies and White Sox clash at Coors Field, which is always a juicy place to pinpoint some home run props to target. Moniak was the No. 1 overall pick all the way back in 2016, but he finally seems to be having the breakthrough people have been waiting for.
Moniak has a dozen homers on the season, and seven of those have come in his last 18 games. He has a .345 batting average, .509 wOBA and 41.0% hard-hit rate over that span.
The splits are mostly in his favor against the White Sox since seven of his 12 homers have come at Coors Field, and 11 of them have come against right-handed pitching. Righty Jonathan Cannon has given up 11 homers in his 13 games with more than half of those hit by left-handed batters, who have hit .271 with a .356 wOBA against him. Cannon has also been misfiring on the road with a 5.16 ERA and 5.11 FIP and 11 homers allowed.
Moniak brings a solid balance of value and potential at these favorable odds, making him one of my top home run props.
