This is the opener of a three-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Boston Red Sox.
Nick Lodolo is scheduled to pitch for the Cincinnati while Ranger Suarez should get the nod for Philadelphia.
Reds at Phillies prediction, preview
Nick Lodolo is creeping up on a career high of 115.1 innings pitched. He’s currently at 94.2. Lodolo used to average 94.5 mph on the fastball and miss bats at a high rate. It came with control issues, though, but that’s normal for young pitchers. Unfortunately, injuries have derailed his career. The strikeout rate was close to 30% early on, but it’s at 21.4% this season. The control has improved dramatically, though, as the walk rate is only 5%. The swinging strike rate is 10.4% while the chase rate is 30.2%, both decent numbers. The 3.52 ERA but the FIP is slightly higher at 4.06.
Righties have hit 12 of the 13 home runs allowed this season. Not surprisingly, 11 of the 13 home runs have been served up at Great American Small Park while the FIP is 2.62 on the road compared to 5.47 at home.
Lodolo has allowed more than three earned runs three times this season, two of those with six earned runs. In the two most recent starts, thugh, he’s allowed only one earned run in each in 5.1 and 4.1 innings. This will be the first time facing Philadelphia this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Phillies have struck out at the 20th-highest rate while having the 12th-best ISO. The wOBA is eighth-best in MLB.
Ranger Suarez is having a great start to the season. The strikeout rate is 23.8% while the walk rate is 6%. He’s only allowed five home runs in 72 innings. The ERA is at 2, although he has had some good fortune. The BABIP is .260 while the strand rate is 84.8%. As a result, the FIP is higher at 2.88. Still, it’s a great number. The Statcast numbers are gorgeous, as Suarez is allowing an average exit velocity of only 84.3 mph while the barrel rate is 4.1% and the hard hit rate is 26.9%. All are best in MLB.
Suarez has been the devil to lefties while righties have had a smidge more success. Suarez has been slightly better at home as well.
Suarez has allowed more than three earned runs only once this season, and that happened in the opener when he get lit up for seven earned runs in 3.2 innings. Over the last four starts, he’s gone at least seven innings in all and allowed one, one, one and zero earned runs. This will be the first time facing the Reds this season.
The Reds have struck out at the 14th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being 17th in ISO. The wOBA is 21st-best.
As for bullpens, Cincinnati has the 26th-lowest FIP while Philadelphia has the 23rd-lowest.
Reds at Phillies, Best Bet
I love both of these pitchers, so I think offense will be tough to come by.
