It’s been eight years, three World Series appearances, and two titles, and I’m still not sure Los Angeles Dodgers fans have gotten over the 2017 World Series. Every time the Dodgers suit up against the Houston Astros, the animosity is palpable. And it should be — genuine rivalries are good for baseball.
In the opening game of this weekend’s series between the NL and AL West leaders, Houston will start Lance McCullers Jr. Los Angeles’ primary pitcher will be Ben Casparius, who pitched in bulk relief behind Shohei Ohtani in each of his last three appearances, although it’s possible that Dave Roberts will utilize an opener. The game will take place at Dodger Stadium, with first pitch scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
Both of these teams are among the best and hottest in the league, so it’s not a surprise that the Saturday night clash — which will feature Ohtani on the mound — will be televised on FOX. The Dodgers have won nine of their last 10 games and 18 of their last 23, taking care of business against some fairly easy teams, while the Astros have won eight of 10 and 16 of 21. Both sides recently suffered major injuries — Houston shortstop Jeremy Peña is on the injured list with a fractured rib, while Los Angeles third baseman Max Muncy sustained a bone bruise in his knee — but have barely missed a beat.
In particular, the Astros have won through their pitching staff, which posted a league-best 2.93 ERA in June. Unfortunately for them, that elite pitching doesn’t extend to McCullers, who had a ghastly 3.1-inning, eight-run effort against the Chicago Cubs in his last outing to see his ERA skyrocket from 4.91 to 6.61. To be fair, he hasn’t been consistently terrible — just 3.2 of McCullers’ innings are responsible for 15 of his 24 earned runs — but his good outings came against the Chicago White Sox (third-to-last in ISO), Texas Rangers (eighth-to-last), Seattle Mariners (11th-best), Athletics (ninth-best), and Pittsburgh Pirates (last). The Dodgers rank first in that category.
Even without Muncy, Los Angeles is just too deep. Even Michael Conforto, who has been below the Mendoza Line since April 20, has slashed .258/.281/.581 in his last eight games with three homers across that span. Fan favorite Kiké Hernández has had a poor season overall, but has an OBP north of .300 at home. Plus, Hyeseong Kim hasn’t gotten much playing time, but the Goyang, South Korea native has a .932 OPS in his first 94 MLB plate appearances. I think Casparius can just about do the job; while he’s had a 6.48 ERA across his first four outings as a long reliever/spot starter, his 5.13 FIP figure has been much better and he’s had stellar stretches in his previous middle relief role.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-102)
Normally, I’d take the under for Houston, given how ridiculous its defense has been in the last few weeks, but McCullers isn’t the best that the Astros have and the Dodgers’ home OPS is 39 points better than anyone else’s. Plus, after solid starts from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, and Dustin May, Los Angeles might use its mediocre bullpen to get through this entire series.
Strong Lean: Will Smith (LAD) 1+ Runs (+100)
On Wednesday, Smith was named an All-Star starter for the first time in his career, and it’s hard to say that he doesn’t deserve it; the 30-year-old leads the National League in both batting average and on-base percentage, and though he only ranks 62nd in the MLB in runs, he’s scored in each of his last three games and 13 of his last 16. He’s also moved up in the batting order to third, and he’s scored in seven of the 10 games in which he’s hit third this season.
