Lots of double-headers today after a rained-out day for many games across the country. I’ll be pumping out predictions and picks for the full slate all day. Having said that, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets today surrounding my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Blue Jays (+105) vs. New York Yankees
The Blue Jays are enticing as slight home underdogs against New York. Starter José Berríos is in peak form, posting a 1.97 ERA in June and lowering his season ERA to 3.26. He already stymied the Yankees once this year—on April 25 at Yankee Stadium, Berríos threw 5.1 scoreless innings in a 4-2 win. Importantly, he has kept the ball in the park (only two homers allowed in 32 June innings), which is key against a Bronx lineup built on power (New York ranks second in MLB with 128 home runs this season).
Meanwhile, the Yankees hand the ball to rookie Will Warren (5-4, 4.37 ERA). Warren shows promise with a high strikeout rate, but when batters connect, they’re making loud contact—his average exit velocity against is a hefty 91.1 mph with a 47% hard-hit rate. That could spell trouble in Rogers Centre against a Toronto offense that is excellent at putting balls in play (team .256 batting average, tied fourth-best in MLB). The Jays can string hits together with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and George freaking Springer, everybody(!)—you name one.
By contrast, the Yankees’ bats have cooled off lately—from June 13 through the end of the month, New York managed an underwhelming 86 wRC+ (24th in MLB). In other words, their offense has been 14% below league average over the past couple of weeks. Given Berríos’ current groove and the Yankees’ mini-slump, backing Toronto at plus-money offers solid value. The Blue Jays should ride Berríos and a strong bullpen to a home victory in this AL East showdown.
Milwaukee Brewers (Game 1) Moneyline at New York Mets (Brewers +110)
In the first game of a doubleheader, the Brewers are a live underdog against the Mets. Milwaukee sends out Freddy Peralta, who’s enjoying an outstanding 2025 campaign (8-4, 2.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). Peralta has been a strikeout machine with 98 Ks already, and he’ll face a Mets lineup that has been inconsistent. New York counters with former reliever Clay Holmes, whom they converted to a starter this year. Holmes has impressed (8-4, 2.97 ERA), but this matchup is closer than the odds imply. The Brewers actually have the stronger offense overall – they average 4.7 runs per game (397 runs total), ranking ninth in MLB, while the Mets score 4.3 per game (14th). Milwaukee doesn’t rely on the long ball (only 79 HR, 25th in MLB) but excels at manufacturing runs through contact and speed, which can put pressure on Holmes and the Mets defense.
Crucially, the Brewers enter this game in great form—they’re 8-2 over their last 10 games—whereas the Mets have sputtered, going 4-6 in their last 10. Even though New York plays above .600 ball at home, the Brewers have proven they can win on the road (recent series wins in tough road parks) behind a bullpen anchored by Devin Williams. Peralta’s electric fastball/slider mix (opponents’ wOBA just .285) should contain a Mets lineup that is heavily right-handed around Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. With essentially a wash in the starting pitching matchup—both Peralta and Holmes sport sub-3.00 ERAs—the difference comes down to the hotter team with the better offense getting plus odds. Milwaukee has won 18 of 41 games as an underdog this year, and this is another spot where the Brew Crew can deliver an upset. In Game 1 of the twin bill, grab the value on the Brewers to grind out a win behind Peralta’s arm.
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals u7.0 total runs (-110)
Everything points to a low-scoring duel in Seattle tonight. T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball in 2025, suppressing offense by roughly 16% below league average. On top of that, both starting pitchers have been excellent. Royals rookie Noah Cameron carries a 2.79 ERA into this start and has allowed one-or-zero earned runs in three of his last four outings. He’s a crafty lefty with a 1.01 WHIP, and notably has yielded only four home runs across 51.2 innings all season. That last stat looms large, because Seattle’s offense relies on the long ball—the Mariners are 21-9 when they hit 3+ homers, but just 23-32 in all other games. If Cameron can continue to keep the ball in the yard, the M’s often streaky lineup may struggle to generate runs.
On the other side, Logan Gilbert has been dominant for Seattle. In eight starts, he owns a 3.55 ERA with an elite 0.92 WHIP, and he’s racked up 67 strikeouts in 45⅔ innings (13.2 K/9) thanks to a devastating slider. Gilbert has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in six of eight starts this year, and he’s coming off a 7.0-inning, 9-K gem in his last outing. Facing a Royals lineup that ranks dead-last in scoring (just 3.3 runs per game) and has minimal power (MLB-low 58 home runs), Gilbert should have the upper hand. Kansas City has been unders gold recently, going under the total in seven of their last 10 road games and in six of Cameron’s eight starts. They’ve scored only 3.1 runs per game over their past 10 contests, a reflection of their season-long offensive futility.
Both bullpens further bolster the case for the under. Seattle’s relief corps has been lights-out at home with a collective 2.67 ERA at T-Mobile, featuring flamethrower Andrés Muñoz in the ninth. The Royals’ bullpen has been a surprising strength as well, led by All-Star closer Carlos Estévez (23 saves) and setup man Lucas Erceg – this group just worked 4+ scoreless innings in the series opener Monday before a late stumble. With two young starters dealing and two top-10 bullpens behind them, runs will be at a premium. The betting market agrees: sharp money hit the under early, driving the total down from 7.5 to 7.0. We’ll follow suit and trust the arms in a park where fly balls go to die. A 3-2 or 4-2 type game feels very likely here.
