The first game of the series between the Mets and Brewers gets underway on Wednesday as the first part of a doubleheader at Citi Field. Below, I break down my prediction and pick.
Clay Holmes is scheduled to pitch for New York, while Freddy Peralta will take the mound for Milwaukee.
Mets vs. Brewers prediction, preview
Clay Holmes is in line to start for the Mets. Holmes is having a great season for New York. After spending most of his career as a bullpen arm, the Mets signed him with the intention of him being a starter. Holmes has risen to the occasion, with a 2.97 ERA through 16 starts. His eight wins this season are tied for the most of any pitcher in the National League. Holmes has gone seven straight starts without giving up more than three earned runs, continuously turning in quality starts. While the Mets have suffered injuries in their rotation, seen some decline in their bullpen and gotten cold on offense, Holmes has been a steady positive for them. The Mets have gone past the point of a cold streak, and it is now unclear if they are actually a great team. Holmes will hope to turn in another quality start and get the Mets a win to start this series.
Freddy Peralta is also having a good season on the mound. In fact, Peralta’s numbers are very similar to Holmes’ stats. Peralta has a 2.90 ERA through 17 starts and is tied with Holmes for the NL lead in wins. Peralta is more of a strikeout pitcher than Holmes, averaging 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. That number is actually the lowest of Peralta’s career, but it has not effected his production. His walks per nine innings figure is down from last season, and he is giving up 0.5 fewer hits per nine innings compared to last season. Peralta has gone eight straight starts without giving up more than three earned runs. Against this struggling Mets lineup, Peralta should be able to show off his stuff and turn in another good outing. The only concern about Peralta is his home/road splits this season. He has a 1.76 ERA in Milwaukee compared to a 4.02 ERA on the road.
Mets vs. Brewers pick, best bet
The Mets are in total disarray at the moment. They have lost 13 of their past 16 games, including getting swept by the lowly Pirates over the weekend in blowout fashion. Mets owner Steve Cohen is tweeting to the fans to keep faith and a players-only meeting has been held — two big signs of trouble in New York. It wasn’t long ago that the Mets had the best record in baseball and the best team ERA in the league. They have suffered some injuries on the pitching staff, and some players who were outperforming their expectations have dropped back to Earth. Other than Juan Soto, the Mets’ bats have also cooled off. A run of 16 games is a large enough sample size to express real concern over the state of this New York team. The eventual return of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea should help the rotation get back in shape, but the Mets’ bats need to find some rhythm.
The Brewers have won eight of their past 10 games and are now only two games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. It is a competitive division, and Milwaukee is holding its own. It also holds a similar record to the Mets, and while it’s still very early in the season, these two teams could be fighting for a Wild Card spot in October. This is an important series to both teams as the Brewers look to stay hot and the Mets look to find any sort of groove.
My best bet for this game is the Brewers moneyline parlayed with Christian Yelich to have a hit. Clay Holmes and Freddy Peralta’s numbers are very similar this season, and while the Mets’ season-long bullpen numbers are better than Milwaukee’s, the Mets’ bullpen is not the same as it was earlier in the year. So, from a pitching perspective, it’s a wash. That means the lineups will determine the outcome. The Mets are ice-cold at the plate, and they have struggled against Peralta in the past. New York’s big three, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso, are a combined 3-for-25 in their careers against Peralta. Yelich is batting .314 on the road this season and is 3-for-5 in his career against Holmes. He should pick up a hit en route to a Brewers victory at Citi Field.
