Slowly but surely, the full field for what promises to be a star-studded home run derby is shaping up. First, it was Ronald Acuña Jr., who committed to participating in his home stadium. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who leads all of baseball with 33 homers so far, will also participate in the showcase, while a spate of stars, including last year’s winner Teoscar Hernández, declined.
Will any players hit home runs tonight and go on to mash some more during the Derby? We can only hope. Here are my three favorite home run prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Runs (+225)
Was there ever a doubt that Raleigh would make this list? Big Dumper hit 34 homers in 153 games last season, and he has a real chance of tying that mark in just his 84th game of the season. He’s hit seven homers in the last 13 games, including a stretch of six in six games, and there doesn’t seem to be a pitcher capable of figuring him out. His homers are majestic, often landing in the second deck and beyond.
If he goes deep tonight, it’ll almost be disrespectful, given that the Kansas City Royals as a team has hit just 58 home runs this season. He has a good shot of doing so against Michael Lorenzen, who’s conceded 16 bombs in his 88 innings and has allowed 20.9% of his hit balls to be pulled fly balls, the most likely type of contact to result in a home run. Plus, while Raleigh’s main flaw as a hitter is his tendency to whiff, Lorenzen induces whiffs at just a 26th-percentile rate.
Isaac Paredes 1+ Home Runs (+320)
Last time I wrote this column, I picked Paredes’ teammate Christian Walker after a long deliberation between him and Paredes, and of course Paredes went deep while Walker did not. I’m not making the same mistake again; Walker has 10 homers this year and Paredes has 17. Six of those 17 came in June, including one just two days ago. Last time, I was scared off by his 11th-percentile bat speed, but the fact that 26.2% of his hits are squared up and 38.7% leave his bat in the launch-angle sweet spot make me confident in his ability to maximize his power.
Plus, anybody can hit a homer against the Colorado Rockies — heck, Michael Conforto hit two in a three-game series last week. In the thin Rocky Mountain air, balls just travel further, and Chase Dollander is no stranger to hard hits, given that he ranks in just the fourth percentile in barrel percentage. Colorado’s top prospect sports a 6.06 ERA this season and has given up 14 homers, and he throws a four-seam fastball on nearly half of his pitches despite opponents smacking it to the tune of a .607 slugging percentage. Paredes has slugged .585 this season against four-seamers, producing an exit velocity north of 95 miles per hour on 39.0% of them.
Roman Anthony 1+ Home Runs (+475)
Anthony, baseball’s top prospect, has posted an unimpressive .210/.329/.339 slash line through the first 73 plate appearances of his MLB career, but the underlying numbers are much kinder. Although he isn’t yet qualified for Statcast leaderboards, he would rank in the top quartile in each of the four most important slugging categories: average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, barrel percentage, and bat speed. With a 74 MPH bat speed producing hard hits 48.8% of the time, finding the barrel 14.0% of the time, and producing a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity while rarely chasing or whiffing, Anthony’s hitting tools are clear.
Brady Singer’s pitching bona fides aren’t. This season, the 28-year-old has given up barrels at a 12th-percentile clip, hard hits 44.6% of the time, and a 91.1 MPH average exit velocity, ranking in the bottom two quintiles in every Statcast category except extension, simply as a result of him being six-foot-five. He, too, gives up pulled fly balls at a below-average rate, and eight of the 10 homers he’s conceded this season have been to left-handed hitters. The stars are all aligning for Anthony to hit his second career homer.
