This Monday evening features a star pitching battle between Boston Red Sox star Garrett Crochet ($10,700), who ranks third in the American League in ERA, and Cincinnati Reds rookie Chase Burns ($8,000), who dazzled in his debut with eight strikeouts in his five innings, although he gave up three runs in six innings (17.65 FPTS).
Crochet and Burns are just a few of the stars available in tonight’s small but mighty (six-game) slate. With an entry fee of just $5, today’s featured DFS contest is a low-risk, high-reward proposition. Here are three players you should prioritize as you build your lineups.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Knuckleball [$50K to 1st]
SP George Kirby, Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals, $7,700
You’d be forgiven for going for Crochet, given that Cincinnati has just a league-average offense and Crochet has allowed two earned runs over his last 21.1 innings (87.8 FPTS across three games). It’s the easiest solution, and it may well be the most popular, but the southpaw has averaged just 20.0 FPTS per game at home as opposed to 28.8 on the road, which is just enough to nudge me away from him, given his high salary.
Instead, I like Kirby’s value. Although his season stats are fairly unimpressive — a 5.40 ERA and 12.2 FPTS per game — those struggles are mostly overstated because of his horrible first two starts (8.2 innings, 11 earned runs, 1.4 FPTS per game). Since then, the 27-year-old has thrown 28 innings in five starts, giving up 11 runs while walking six and striking out 28 (16.5 FPTS per game). His strong form should continue against the Royals, who have posted the league’s fifth-lowest OPS this season, and while he gives up hard hits at just a 33rd-percentile rate, Kansas City generates them at the eighth-lowest clip. Also, while the Royals rarely whiff, the Mariners’ defense has the 12th-best efficiency and plays in easily the most pitcher-friendly park.
OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, $6,500
When in doubt, go with Judge, who broke out of a mini-slump with a two-for-four, two-homer (36-FPT) performance yesterday afternoon in the Bronx, just his third double-digit fantasy performance in the last two weeks. I trust that that kind of form is sustainable, since Judge is the best hitter in baseball, and in a slate that’s not exceptionally deep in hitting options — and other surefire starters like Elly De La Cruz ($5,800) running into the buzzsaw that is Crochet — saving some DFS salary for Judge is never a terrible idea.
Blue Jays starter Max Scherzer ($6,500), is more big name than effective pitcher at this point in his career. The 40-year-old will doubtlessly be inducted into Cooperstown after the conclusion of his career, but his first two starts of the season haven’t been great. He returned last Tuesday from a three-month stint on the injured list with thumb inflammation and gave up three runs and six hits in five innings, walking three and striking out four (7.85 FPTS). His fastball velocity is down, and it’s been shellacked to the tune of a .692 slugging percentage this season, which makes the average hitter of Scherzer’s four-seamer, in essence, Aaron Judge.
3B/SS Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics, $4,900
The sky is the limit for the 21-year-old Dominican, whose 20 home runs ranks third in the American League behind only Judge and Cal Raleigh ($6,300). Caminero still chases at just a 15th-percentile rate, but given that he has a 73rd-percentile whiff rate and a 100th-percentile bat speed, he can be forgiven for that. He’s been lacing the cover off the ball in his last 10 games, slashing .317/.364/.561 (9.6 FPTS per game) across that span, and Tampa Bay is breathing down New York’s neck in an AL East title fight that may stretch into October.
Jacob Lopez ($7,000) was generally poor over his first seven starts of the season before allowing just one earned run across 23 innings in his last four starts (25.2 FPTS per game) as the Athletics have won each. Lopez has a lot of tools, ranking in the league’s top quintile in seven of 13 Statcast categories, but his main weakness — inducing ground balls — mitigates Caminero’s. He also likes to throw his slider, using it on 31% of his pitches, and Caminero has slugged .620 against sliders this season. Plus, Caminero won’t just be facing Lopez; he’ll also be able to take advantage of the Athletics’ league-worst bullpen.
