This is the opener of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting St. Louis Cardinals.
Erick Fedde is scheduled to pitch for the St. Louis while Andrew Heaney should get the nod for Pittsburgh.
Cardinals at Pirates prediction, preview
Erick Fedde does a good job of keeping the ball in the park, but he issues too many free passes and doesn’t miss bats. The swinging strike rate is only 6.9% while the strikeout rate is 15.2%. The walk rate is a robust 10.2%. The hard hit rate is 43% and the FIP is 4.49, compared to the 4.11 ERA.
Lefties have had more success against Fedde, as seven of the nine home runs have come off their bats. Fedde has been worse at home than on the road. The K-BB% is 3% while the FIP is 5.11 at home. On the road, those numbers aren’t great, but the 6.7% K-BB% and 4.05 FIP are better.
Fedde has allowed more than three earned runs four times. Back in early May, he did pitch a complete-game shutout against the Nationals in Washington while striking out eight and allowing only six hits. In his most recent outing, though, Fedde got cranked for seven earned runs in 3.2 innings at home against the Chicago Cubs. Fedde faced Pittsburgh in his third start of the season. He went six innings, walked four and struck out two without allowing a hit. That game was in Pittsburgh.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates have struck out at the ninth-highest rate while having the 30th-best ISO. The wOBA is 29th-best in MLB.
Andrew Heaney has never thrown hard, but he used to miss bats and strike out plenty of hitters. The K/9 was over 10 five times. It’s down at 6.67 this season. One of his main bugaboos has been the long ball, and that has not gone away. Through 86.1 innings, Heaney has allowed 14 home runs. The FIP is 4.86 compared to the 4.48 ERA. The hard hit rate is 43.2%.
Heaney has been meh both on the road and at home. Both righties and lefties have had success against him.
Heaney has allowed more than three earned runs six times this season. In his two most recent outings, he’s gotten lit up for seven earned runs in four innings during both starts. This will be the first time pitching against St. Louis this season.
The Cardinals have struck out at the 22nd-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being 22nd in ISO. The wOBA is 15th-best.
As for bullpens, St. Louis has the ninth-lowest FIP while Pittsburgh has the 12th-lowest.
Cardinals at Pirates, Best Bet
I want to take the over in this one because I have no faith in either pitcher. That said, I don’t have faith in either offense as well. I’ll take the home team at slightly positive odds.
