This is the opener of a three-game series in Philadelphia between the Phillies and visiting San Diego Padres.
Matt Waldron is scheduled to pitch for the San Diego while Zack Wheeler should get the nod for Philadelphia.
Padres at Phillies prediction, preview
Waldron is a knuckleballer who will be making his season debut after being placed on the injured list in March due to a left oblique strain. Last season, he started 26 games and pitched 146.2 innings, producing a 4.91 ERA. The fastball averaged 90.8 mph. The strikeout rate was 21.3% while the K-BB% was 14.9%. The swinging strike rate was only 8.7% while the chase rate was 22.9%. Waldron allowed 21 home runs.
Waldron was split and venue neutral last season. He allowed over three earned runs 10 times last season. He got blasted for 10 earned runs in 4.1 innings by the Minnesota Twins in his second-to-last start of the season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies have struck out at the 24th-highest rate while having the 19th-best ISO. The wOBA is 10th-best in MLB.
Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in MLB. The fastball averages 96 mph, the 2.55 ERA is supported by the 2.68 FIP, the strikeout rate is a gorgeous 32.9% (best in MLB) while the K-BB% is 26.4% (second-best in MLB). He’s only allowed 10 home runs and walked 25 batters in 99 innings. The barrel rate is 6.5%, hard hit rate is 32.6% and average exit velocity is 87.1 mph.
Wheeler has been split and venue neutral. He has allowed more than three earned runs three times this season. Two of those came in the first four starts of the season. His worst outing happened five starts ago when he allowed six earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Atlanta Braves at home. Since then, he’s allowed one, one, zero and one earned run. This will be the first time facing the Padres this season.
The Padres have struck out at the 28th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 24th in ISO. The wOBA is 18th-best.
As for bullpens, San Diego has the fourth-lowest FIP while Philadelphia has the 24th-lowest.
Padres at Phillies, Best Bet
I expect Wheeler to continue being dominant. The wild card is Waldron. Knuckleballers have a wide range of outcomes to begin with and Waldron hasn’t pitched in almost a year. That said, I either don’t expect him to be sharp or not last long, which means a lot of the Padres bullpen, which has been one of the best this season.
