Major League Baseball has a busy Sunday schedule with most of the action in the early afternoon. There are a couple of games that start just after 4:00 p.m. ET and an AL Central matchup between the Twins and Tigers in the Sunday Night Baseball spotlight. From those three games, let’s hunt down a few home run props to target for this Sunday late afternoon and evening. Based on matchup, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props on the board for late in the day on Sunday are James Wood, Agustin Ramirez and Riley Greene.
Just a quick reminder before we step up to the plate and swing for the fences — all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks — even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball is coming.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard — get those QTs and RTs ready on X! Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy but they shouldn’t be exclusively counted on. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGPs or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit it deep on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Sunday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
James Wood to record 1+ home runs (+230)
Just because we don’t have an overload of options on the later Sunday slate doesn’t mean there aren’t some great matchups to attack. James Wood and the Nationals are in Anaheim, where they’ll go up against Jack Kochanowicz of the Angels.
Kochanowicz has been a great target for MLB stacks and home runs, especially for left-handed hitters. The Nats are stacked with lefty power options, starting with Wood, who already has 22 homers in his 83 games this season, and six of those homers have come in his last 15 games, including this smash in Los Angeles:
Wood has hit 15 of his 22 homers against right-handed pitchers and he has a .410 wOBA in the split. He hasn’t homered yet in Anaheim, but he has three hard-hit batted balls in the series. He has a 57.4% hard-hit rate on the season and a 19.0% barrel rate–the lefties power is definitely legit!
Kochanowicz is a juicy matchup for Wood, since he has allowed lefties to hit .303 with a .393 wOBA against him and given up 13 of his 15 home runs to left-handed hitters. Kochanowicz has allowed 15 homers in 16 starts, including six in his last five outings.
While Wood’s fellow lefties CJ Abrams (+330) and Nathaniel Lowe (+370) bring extra value and are good options as well, I think Wood is the most likely to go deep in this game, and I am happy to grab him at over +200 in my home run props for the late afternoon.
Agustin Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+550)
Ramirez is another youngster with prodigious power production early in his career, and the righty is on the strong side of the splits on Sunday against lefty Eduardo Rodriguez in hitter-friendly Chase Field.
The right-handed catcher has delivered on his power potential early in his career and has been getting DH reps when he’s not behind the plate. Through 57 games, the 23-year-old has 12 home runs, a 48.4% hard-hit rate and an 11.4% barrel rate. His contact metrics have been improving lately, and he has a 52.4% hard-hit rate and 17.5% barrel rate over his last 20 games.
During that stretch, he is hitting .280 with a .343 wOBA and five home runs.
On Saturday at Chase Field, he’ll be on the strong side of the splits against Rodriguez, who has allowed 11 homers in 13 starts this season, nine of which have been hit by righties like Ramirez. Righties have five homers and a .369 wOBA against him at home at Chase Field.
Ramirez is making excellent contact and brings plenty of power potential as the Marlins look to close out a sweep of the Snakes in Phoenix.
Riley Greene to record 1+ home runs (+350)
In the nightcap for the last of my home run props, there’s no way I’m going against Tarik Skubal and the Tigers, so instead we’ll grab a Tigers hitter going against Chris Paddack. The power numbers are split right just about down the middle against Paddack, so there’s no strong righty/lefty bias in these props.
Greene has been one of the Tigers’ hottest hitters and has five homers in his last 14 games after going yard on Saturday against the Twins.
Greene has gone 22-for-57 (.386) over those 14 games with a .491 wOBA. His batted-ball metrics back up his recent success since he has a 46.3% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate on the season.
He is only 0-for-1 with a walk in his past matchups with Paddack, but he has been much better against righties in general this season. On that strong side of his splits, he’s hitting .321 with a .419 wOBA while producing 17 of his 18 long balls this season against righties.
Greene and the Tigers are already over 10 games ahead of the Twins and everyone else in the AL Central, but they still need a win on Sunday night to secure the series win headed into the last two weeks before the All-Star break.
