Fenway Park turns electric today as the Blue Jays and Red Sox collide in a rubber match that screams high stakes. Toronto, sitting at 44-38, fights to keep pace in the AL East. Boston, 41-43, desperately clings to relevance as July looms. After splitting the first two games, both clubs know what’s on the line. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday baseball game between the Red Sox and the Blue Jays.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Eric Lauer takes the mound with a 2.21 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and opponents batting just .188 against him. His 3.36 expected ERA backs up the performance, while his 25.5% strikeout rate and 5% barrel rate show how effectively he controls contact. His 31.7% CSW (called strikes plus whiffs) rate keeps hitters uncomfortable and off balance. On the road this season, Lauer has held opponents to a .195 batting average with a 2.19 ERA in 24.2 innings—he’s been even better outside of Toronto.
Walker Buehler’s profile tells the opposite story. His 6.29 ERA and 1.57 WHIP come with a 4.96 expected ERA and an 11.5% barrel rate—he’s been vulnerable to hard contact all season. His fastball velocity is down a full tick from last year, and his 20.2% whiff rate signals trouble against lineups that don’t chase.
Toronto’s bats are well suited to exploit that. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comes in with a .284 average, .390 OBP, and .449 slugging. George Springer is locked in, hitting .378 over his last ten games, and Alejandro Kirk brings a .438 average in his last five with a 13% strikeout rate that limits Buehler’s margin for error. Daulton Varsho, despite recent injury concerns, has 10 doubles in day games this season and a .290 xBA in those spots. Addison Barger’s 43% hard-hit rate gives Toronto length in the lineup that Boston can’t match today.
Boston’s offense, while full of potential, has been just as disappointing as their starting pitching. Wilyer Abreu’s .324 OBP leads the club—which, yikes—but he and Trevor Story both carry strikeout rates north of 25%. Ceddanne Rafaela’s 44.1% ground ball rate limits his impact at Fenway when Lauer works the lower third of the zone. Boston’s lineup is top 10 in home runs but sits bottom five in hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching in June.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
The betting trends align. Toronto has covered the run line in eight of its last nine day games following a road loss against AL competition. Boston has failed to cover in five of six such matchups at Fenway. The weather adds another layer—10 mph winds out to left field should boost Toronto’s right-handed bats.
This isn’t a spot to overcomplicate. Lauer’s advanced metrics, Toronto’s lineup depth, and Buehler’s ongoing struggles make the run line play clear. Blue Jays -1.5 at plus money holds solid value here. This is where Toronto reasserts control.
Best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) at Red Sox
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