I am legitimately fascinated to see the reception that the Red Sox get on Friday night.
While the Rafael Devers trade now feels like forever ago, the fact of the matter is that this will be the team’s first game in Boston since the transaction. It probably doesn’t help the overall vibes that the Red Sox come into this tilt with the Blue Jays having lost five in a row, either. The Fenway faithful might be a little loud and opinionated.
Zooming out, this is a massive series for Boston if it wishes to stay competitive in the AL East. Toronto is currently four games clear of the Red Sox in the division and is inhabiting one of the three American League Wild Card spots.
Let’s preview this storyline-filled matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
While there haven’t been a ton of bright spots this season for the Red Sox, it does seem like Brayan Bello is turning his season around. After giving up 10 hits and seven earned runs to the Braves back on May 18, the right-hander has been fantastic in his last six outings, maintaining a 2.65 ERA and a 3.46 FIP across 34.0 innings of work. Specific to his past four appearances, Bello has four straight quality starts, including a very impressive performance against the Yankees on June 15. The 26-year-old tossed a season-high seven innings in that one, not allowing a single run and striking out eight. For 2025 as a whole, Bello’s xERA remains inflated at 4.69, but there’s undoubtedly been some very positive recent signs.
On Friday, Bello will draw a Jays lineup that has been quiet over the past two weeks, registering underwhelming marks in both ISO (.123) and wRC+ (98). It’s also important to note that this contest is taking place at Fenway Park, as Toronto has been a completely different squad on the road — it’s honestly approaching Coors Field levels. To wit, the Jays sit dead-last in MLB with a .102 ISO away from home. It’s a figure that the team pairs with an 86 wRC+. At Rogers Centre? Toronto is in possession of a .182 ISO and a 125 wRC+, both of which rank in the top five of the league. Another thing to keep an eye on that has massive ramifications to the Jays’ offensive potency is the health of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (forearm) after the All-Star was forced to leave Thursday’s win over the Guardians. The removal seemed to be precautionary, yet if Vladdy isn’t starting this evening, Bello should thrive.
Jose Berrios will make up the other half of the probable pitchers on Friday. The 31-year-old is doing he usual thing in 2025, making every single one of his starts and posting an ERA (3.51) that’s about a run lower than what his expected stats suggest it should be. Berrios is also on the heels of arguably his best outing of the season, throwing 7.2 innings of scoreless baseball against the White Sox. It’s the fourth time in the veteran RHP’s last five starts that Berrios has held his opponent to a single earned run or fewer across at least six innings of work. Needless to say, Toronto’s Opening Day starter appears to be in a nice groove.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-103)
The Jays have a league-worst ISO on the road (.102) and the Red Sox have a league-worst wRC+ (53) since the day they traded Devers.
Strong Lean: Brayan Bello Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Bello owns a seventh percentile whiff rate (18.4%). Toronto has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB (17.9%).
