This is the opener of a three-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Ryan Pepiot is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay, while Tomoyuki Sugano should get the nod for Baltimore.
Rays at Orioles prediction, preview
Ryan Pepiot averages 95 mph on the fastball and is posting an 11.6% swinging strike rate. The strikeout rate is at a respectable 24.2%, while the walk rate is 7.4%. The 3.04 ERA looks nice, but the FIP is a full run higher at 4.06. The BABIP is .258, while the strand rate is 84.7%. Pepiot is allowing a hard hit rate of 41.3% with a 17 degree launch angle. He’s allowed 14 home runs in 94.2 innings.
Pepiot has reverse splits, as righties have been more effective against him. The K-BB% is only 11.8% compared to 22.7% against lefties. Righties have hit eight of the 14 home runs. 12 of the 14 home runs have been allowed at home.
Pepiot has allowed more than three earned runs once this season. That was his fourth start of the season against the Boston Red Sox at home, when he allowed six earned runs in six innings. He did strike out eight, but served up two home runs. Pepiot just faced Baltimore two starts ago at home, striking out 11 in eight innings while allowing only one earned run.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles have struck out at the fourth-highest rate while having the sixth-best ISO. The wOBA is 13th-best in MLB.
Tomoyuki Sugano scoffs at the youngins who throw 100 mph and miss bats. The 35-year-old Japanese rookie averages 92.5 mph on the fastball with a swinging strike rate of 7.4%. The strikeout rate is only 14.4%. But Sugano is a wily veteran with guile, allowing a hard hit rate of 36.8% and walking only 17 batters in 83.2 innings. The ERA is a respectable 3.55. But, but, but… the FIP is much higher at 4.81 and Sugano has allowed 14 home runs.
There are no discernible splits for Sugano. Lefties have been slightly more successful while Camden Yards has been a smidge unfriendly.
Sugano has allowed more than three earned runs only once this season: four earned runs in 6.1 innings against the Twins at home back in May. He has allowed three earned runs in each of the last three starts. This will be the first time facing the Rays this season.
The Rays have struck out at the 10th-highest rate against right-handed pitching, while being 16th in ISO. The wOBA is sixth-best.
As for bullpens, Tampa Bay has the 14th-lowest FIP while Baltimore has the 20th-lowest.
Rays at Orioles pick, best bet
Sugano knows how to pitch. There’s no doubt about that. But at some point, the lack of stuff and velocity will come back to bite him while the regression fairies will sprinkle their dust. Whether that happens on Friday remains to be seen, but I do think the Rays have some success against him, especially in Baltimore. On the flip side, Pepiot has been pitching well and just neutered the Orioles two starts ago. I expect him to pitch well once again.
