This is the opener of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting New York Mets.
David Peterson is scheduled to pitch for New York while Mitch Keller should get the nod for Pittsburgh.
Mets at Pirates prediction, preview
David Peterson used to boast a K/9 over 10. Now? It’s down in the 7s. He’s still been able to be effective, though. The ERA is 2.98 while the FIP is 3.37. He’s allowed only six home runs in 90.2 innings and induces ground balls galore: 59.6% GB%. While the hard hit rate is 44.2% and the average exit velocity is 90.3 mph. The barrel rate is only 5.7% while the launch angle is 4.7 degrees.
Peterson has been the devil to lefties. The K-BB% is 25.3% while the FIP is 2.07. Against righties is a different story. The K-BB% plummets to 8.4% while the FIP is 3.81. Five of the six home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties. Five home runs have come on the road.
Peterson has allowed more than three earned runs only once, and that came in his most recent outing. The Philadelphia Phillies tagged him for five earned runs and two home runs in four innings. That was his worst outing for sure on the season and only the second time failing to pitch at least five innings. Peterson faced Pittsburgh back in mid-May, going six innings, striking out seven, walking three and allowed two earned runs.
Against left-handed pitching, the Pirates have struck out at the third-highest rate while having the 27th-best ISO. The wOBA is 29th-best in MLB.
Mitch Keller has an 18.5% strikeout rate but only 6.1% walk rate. The ERA is 4.02 but the FIP is lower at 3.24. He’s allowed only six home runs in 94 innings. Keller hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been bad either. The 1-10 record isn’t a true reflection of him.
Lefties have had more success against Keller, as the FIP is 1.38 higher than against righties while the K-BB% is almost 10% lower. Keller has been better on the road than at home.
Keller has allowed more than three earned runs three times this season: seven earned runs in 3.2 innings during his second start of the season against the Yankees, four earned runs in five innings in May against the Padres and six earned runs in 6.1 innings four starts ago against the Astros. He has only one shutout on the season. Keller faced the Mets back in mid-May and allowed two earned runs while striking out eight in seven innings.
The Mets have struck out at the 23rd-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being fifth in ISO. The wOBA is fifth-best.
As for bullpens, New York has the lowest FIP while Pittsburgh has the 15th-lowest.
Mets at Pirates, Best Bet
The Pirates struggle against left-handed pitching. Peterson is a lefty and has already had success against Pittsburgh. He does pitch better at home but the Pirates offense isn’t a scary one. I don’t think Keller gets blown up, but I do think the Mets can plate more than a few runs to make victory a comfortable endeavor.
