The Cubs stride into Busch with swagger and unfinished business, knowing this is their moment to slam the door on a bitter rival. Chicago’s bats are humming, Shota Imanaga is back to restore order, and the Cardinals look ripe for the taking. Which is good news for a playoff-caliber Cubs team that was starting to show the extreme versions of its most quintessential cracks over the last two weeks. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday baseball game between the Cardinals and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
The Cubs blanked St. Louis last night, and I’m backing them to hammer that momentum home. Shota Imanaga returns from the IL carrying a 2.82 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, elite command, and a 1.19 ERA in four road starts. Even though he missed nearly two months, his rehab was dominant — 10.1 scoreless innings, zero walks — and his mix of splitter and four-seamer will punish a Cardinals lineup that ranks 28th in strikeouts this season. Chicago’s offense is a top-five force, cranking 5.42 runs per game on a .771 OPS with dangerous power up and down the order. Nico Hoerner is batting .389 this week, Pete Crow-Armstrong owns a ridiculous .560 SLG in June, and they’ll face Andre Pallante, who owns a 4.48 ERA and shaky 1.31 WHIP. Pallante’s xFIP of 3.56 looks okay on paper, but it masks a bloated 1.50 HR/9 rate and a 40% hard-hit rate that this Cubs’ power can jump all over.
The Cardinals might flash a respectable .322 team OBP and put up 4.72 runs per game, but they’re not scaring anyone lately. Nolan Arenado is stuck at a 91 wRC+ and slashing a paltry .245/.306/.395. Brendan Donovan is carrying most of the load with a .372 OBP and a 122 wRC+, but Lars Nootbaar’s .230 average and Willson Contreras’ 10 homers feel like too little support. St. Louis has gone cold over the past three games — 10 hits and just three runs total — and their 81 homers as a team this year ranks bottom-10 in MLB. Even their contact-heavy profile won’t faze a guy like Imanaga, who pounds the zone and keeps walks and barrels to a minimum.
Any notion that Pallante’s home splits make him a live dog crumbles fast. His two good home starts came against Cincinnati and Colorado — both bottom-10 in wRC+ on the road — and against a deep Cubs lineup with a top-three wRC+ versus righties (118 wRC+), that edge evaporates. Chicago also hits 1.26 homers per game on the road this season and their bullpen, anchored by a revived Porter Hodge, recently activated from the IL. They’ll protect a lead far better than a St. Louis pen posting a 4.76 ERA over its last seven games.
Cubs vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
This is also a classic spot to back Chicago against the spread. The Cubs are 9-3 as road favorites between -125 and -175 this season. St. Louis is a mediocre 9-12 as home underdogs, and they just dropped one at home 8-0. Even weather leans to my side—humid heat and a breeze blowing out at 10-12 mph will make every mistake pitch more dangerous, and the Cubs have the firepower to exploit it.
The total sits at 9, and eight of the last ten games between these two at Busch have soared over that mark, but Chicago’s starting pitching edge is too stark to ignore. And with Imanaga returning at the perfect time—as Chicago is desperate for a stopper after allowing 37 runs over their last six games—you can count on him setting the tone and shoving against a Cardinals offense that’s failed to capitalize all series.
The Cubs will jump on Pallante early, force St. Louis into long relief work, and lean on Imanaga’s precision to control the game. Chicago’s deeper lineup and steadier bullpen make them a mismatch in this spot. Back the Cubs -1.5 (+120) with full confidence. The numbers, trends, and talent all say Chicago cruises here.
They need it, too. A series win on the road against the Cardinals after showing so much pitching vulnerability is just the thing for these Cubbies.
Best bet: Cubs -1.5 (+120) at Cardinals
Happy Imanaga day!—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
