The final game of the series between the Mets and Braves gets underway on Thursday night at Citi Field. Below, I break down my prediction and pick.
Griffin Canning is scheduled to pitch for New York, while Grant Holmes will take the mound for Atlanta.
Mets vs. Braves prediction, preview
Griffin Canning is on the mound for New York as they look to split the series against Atlanta. It has been a strange season for Griffin Canning. He has always been a high-ERA starter, giving up more earned runs than any pitcher in the American League last season. That’s why he seemed like a peculiar acquisition for a Mets team with World Series aspirations. However, he started the season as a pleasant surprise for the Mets. Through his first start of June, Canning had a 2.90 ERA and was one of the best arms in the Mets’ rotation. However, over his past three starts, he has a 7.98 ERA, which has obviously plummeted his season numbers. It will be interesting to monitor how Canning performs tonight. The Mets are hoping he will find his form again, but history indicates this up-and-down nature is the expectation for Canning.
Grant Holmes is in his first MLB season as a full-time starter. Last season, as a rookie for Atlanta, Holmes made 21 appearances, but only seven of those were starts. This season, he already has 15 starts under his belt and has been decent for the Braves. He has a 3.71 ERA on the season, with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. With his high strikeout pedigree comes trouble giving up the long ball. He is giving up 1.5 home runs per nine innings this season, the highest mark in the Braves’ rotation. The Mets have some dangerous home run hitters—namely, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso—who will punish Holmes if he throws a bad pitch.
Mets vs. Braves pick, best bet
The Mets have been on the worst run of their season, losing 10 of their past 12 games. To make matters worse, seven of those losses came against the Braves and Phillies, their two biggest division rivals. On Wednesday night, the Mets finally got back on track with a comfortable win over the Braves. They have a chance to salvage a split in this series at Citi Field, which would give them some real positive momentum moving forward. Despite this awful run of form, the Mets are only 0.5 a game behind the Phillies in the NL East, with the Braves still nine games behind them.
One positive that the Mets can take from their current losing stretch is that Juan Soto is back to being one of the best hitters in baseball. After a slow start to his Mets career by his standards, he is on fire this month. So far in June, he is batting .306, with a 1.238 OPS, ten home runs and 40 combined runs and RBIs. He had two home runs in the Mets’ win last night and should keep it going against Grant Holmes tonight. My favorite prop bet of his is for Soto to record 2+ hits + runs + RBIs. Juan Soto has been walked six more times than anyone in baseball. His elite on-base percentage and power bat are why he ranks fourth in the MLB in runs scored.
The Mets have a losing record on the road this season, but are 28-12 at home. In this massive game at Citi Field, I am backing them to get the win. Griffin Canning should see some positive regression after a couple of tough starts, and once the starters are done, the Mets have a bullpen edge over the Braves. If Soto can keep his hot bat going, the Mets should score enough runs to handle Atlanta. That is why my best bet is a parlay that includes the Mets moneyline and a Soto player prop.
