Some things in life are inevitable: death, taxes, and the Astros. After a rocky start to the season, Houston now finds itself comfortably atop the AL West. With 11 wins over their last 15 contests, this team once again looks like a World Series contender. Today’s opponent, the Phillies, have lofty postseason goals of their own. However, H-Town has not been kind to Philadelphia, losers of two straight. Will the tide turn this afternoon? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s battle between the Phillies and Astros.
The Astros enter as favorites (-144) over the Phillies, with the over/under set at 6.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into today’s contest.
Phillies at Astros prediction, preview
As far as pitching matchups go, they don’t get much better than this. For the visiting Phillies, it’ll be Christopher Sanchez toeing the slab. Following his breakout 2024 campaign, the lefty has been even better this season. Over 87.2 innings pitched, the All-Star owns a 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 92 strikeouts. During his last four outings, the 28-year-old has surrendered just six earned runs (1.93 ERA). With that being said, today’s matchup won’t be a walk in the park.
The Astros have been a subpar offense this season, ranking 19th in runs per game (4.20). However, they rank ninth in scoring over the past two weeks (63 runs). In addition, Houston has been dominant against southpaws. The team has the sixth-highest batting average (.257) and second-highest OPS (.797) against left-handed pitching. As good as Sanchez has been recently, that’s a tough task for any pitcher. This well-rounded Astros lineup doesn’t give opposing starters much room to breathe; six different regulars have recorded a wRC+ of 100 or greater.
The upside for the Phillies is that they possess baseball’s tenth-highest scoring offense. However, that might not matter on Thursday. Astros hurler Hunter Brown is turning heads this season, establishing himself as one of the American League’s top arms. Through 15 starts, he’s put up a 1.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 109 strikeouts. During those outings, the right-hander has surrendered more than two runs only twice. To beat an ace, you need to capitalize with extra-base hits. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, it’s posted a league-average .402 slugging percentage against righties. That’s not the kind of power needed to beat a pitcher of this caliber.
Phillies at Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Astros -1.5 (+157)
After two straight low-scoring defeats, it feels like the Phillies are due for a win. However, the Fightins have the misfortune of facing a potential Cy Young winner in Hunter Brown. Considering how well the Astros hit left-handed pitching, the odds are stacked against Philadelphia.
